Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 28, 2025

In the last game of the regular season for both teams in the Nation’s Capital the Washington Nationals (66-95) play host to the Chicago White Sox (59-102). Both of these teams have been out of the playoff race for a long time and this is the rubber game in this interleague series with the White Sox winning Game 1 and the Nationals taking Game 2. In this detailed Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals prediction, you can get the full score info and other free MLB picks.

 

The Nationals are a slight home favorite in this series finale, posted at -120 with the White Sox at +100 and a total of 8.5 runs.

 

White Sox Hit the Century Mark, Again

The White Sox have the fewest wins in the AL and this is the third straight season where they have lost at least 100 games. In their last game, they lost to the Nationals 6-5, where Brooks Baldwin and Colson Montgomery each had two-run HRs in the losing effort. Chicago has only two wins in their last eight games.

 

• On the season, the White Sox rank only 27th in the Majors in runs scored and 21st in team ERA.
• Lenyn Sosa (.263 22 HR 75 RBI) leads the team in batting average, HR, and RBI and has two HR and five RBI over the last six games.
• Luis Robert Jr. (.223 14 HR 53 RBI) ranks second on the club in HR and RBI and is out for this game with a hamstring injury.
• On the season, Chicago is 26-54 on the road.

Shane Smith (6-8 3.98 ERA 1.24 WHIP) gets the nod for the finale and was solid in his last start, giving up one run on five hits in five innings, but got little help in a 3-2 loss to the New York Yankees. He has given up one or fewer runs in two of the last three starts, but the one he did not, he was lit up for six runs.

 

Nationals Finish Under .500, Again

The Nationals have the second-fewest wins in the NL and they have not finished the season with a winning record since they won the World Series in 2019. In the 6-5 Game 2 win in this series, James Wood broke a tie with a solo HR in the seventh inning and had two RBI, and Jacob Young and Daylen Lile each had two-run HRs. While the Nats are 4-6 in their last 10 games, they have won two of their last three games.

• On the season, Washington ranks 20th in the Majors in runs scored and only 29th in team ERA.
• Wood (.257 31 HR 94 RBI) leads the team in HR and RBI and has four HR and five RBI in the last four games.
• CJ Abrams (.258 19 HR 60 RBI) leads the club in batting average and had four hits in three games before going 0-5 in the last game.
• On the season, the Nationals are 32-48 at home.

 

Brad Lord (5-9 4.12 ERA 1.28 WHIP) takes the hill for Game 3 and in his last start, gave up two runs on four hits in six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves. The Nationals have lost his last two starts after winning the two before that and in his last four outings, they gave up over two runs only once, giving up three runs.

 

Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals Pick

White Sox vs. Nationals

• White Sox +100 (+4 Units)

It is the last game of the regular season between a couple of teams that have to be happy the season is over.  The White Sox have the fewest wins in the AL and have lost at least 100 games in each of the last three seasons. The Nationals have the second-fewest wins in the NL and have not finished the season with a winning record since they won the World Series in 2019. Both starters in this game have pitched pretty well as of late, as Smith has not given up more than one run in two of his last three starts and Lord has not given up more than two runs in three of his last four outings. Regarding the Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals prediction, both starters will have decent outings but with the White Sox having the much better bullpen ERA they will pull out a close one to end the season with a win.

 

Over/Under Pick for Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals

• Under 8.5 runs (+4 Units) 

The total for both games in this series has gone Over, but I am leaning towards the Under in this game. Lord has not given up more than two runs in three of his last four starts, and in the one he did not he only gave up four runs. Smith has not given up more than one run in two of the last three starts, but in the one he did not, he gave up six runs. Both of these starters will pitch pretty well in this game and neither team ranks in the top 20 in baseball in runs scored. Unlike the first two games in this series, the finale will be a lower-scoring affair, which is why the Under is the pick.