Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 16, 2025
In our Reds vs. Cardinals prediction, the Cincinnati Reds are third in the NL Central with a 74-75 record so far. They are having young left-hander Andrew Abbott get the start as he is coming off a win against the San Diego Padres, where he pitched eight innings and allowed one run on five hits with two walks and six strikeouts.
The St. Louis Cardinals are playing well as they are sitting in fourth place in the NL Central with a 73-77 record entering this game. Young left-hander Garrett Crochet takes the ball and is coming off a victory over the Athletic,s where he allowed no runs on three hits with zero walks and 10 strikeouts in seven innings of work.
Cover the diamond — MLB picks for Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals in a fast read
WRITTEN BEFORE MONDAY’S GAME
Reds Looking for Final NL Wild Card Spot
The Cincinnati Reds have been hitting at a respectable level as they are tied with the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins for 17th in the sport with a .707 team OPS while averaging 4.46 runs per game. Cincinnati has been hitting home runs at a lesser rate as they lead are tied with the Chicago White Sox for 22nd in MLB with 151 total homers. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz has been hitting at a great level as he has a .764 OPS with 19 home runs, 82 RBI, 97 runs scored, and 35 steals while being caught seven times.
Andrew Abbott has been stepping up, according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 92nd percentile in hard hit percentage, 84th percentile in average exit velocity, 71st percentile in walk percentage, and 71st percentile in chase percentage. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, changeup, curveball, sweeper, cutter) and his changeup has been his best pitch as hitters have a .194 batting average and .316 slugging percentage with four home runs and 25 strikeouts against it. Abbott faced the Cardinals three times this season and is 1-1 in 16.0 innings and allowed four runs (three earned) on 10 hits with 1 one hit by pitch, eight walks, and 13 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Cincinnati
- Pitcher Ian Gibaut: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Wade Miley: Flexor (OUT)
- Pitcher Rhett Lowder: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Carson Spiers: Shoulder (OUT)
- Left fielder Tyler Callihan: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Brandon Williamson: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Julian Aguiar: Elbow (OUT)
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Cardinals Looking to Play Spoiler
The St. Louis Cardinals are doing a rough job at the plate as they are tied with the Texas Rangers for 25th in the bigs with a .693 team OPS while scoring 4.28 runs per game. The team has been too aggressive at the plate now as they are 24th with 446 walks. First baseman Willson Contreras has been stepping up as he is posting a .255/.342/.444 slash line with 20 home runs, 79 RBI, 69 runs scored, and four steals while being caught once.
Michael McGreevy is pitching poorly this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page, as he is in the third percentile in strikeout percentage, fifth percentile in xBA, eighth percentile in whiff percentage, and 20th percentile in xERA. He has seven different pitches (fastball, sinker, sweeper, curveball, cutter, changeup, slider) and his curveball has been getting hit the most as hitters have a .346 batting average and .500 slugging percentage with one home run and four strikeouts. McGreevy faced the Cardinals once this season in a victory as he allowed one run on five hits with two walks and zero strikeouts in six innings of work.
Injury Report for St. Louis
- Shortstop Masyn Winn: Meniscus (OUT)
- Third baseman Nolan Arenado: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Zack Thompson: Lat (OUT)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick
Spread Pick for Reds vs. Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds -123 (5 units)
The road/home splits show a gap between these pitchers as Andrew Abbott is 5-2 with a .14 ERA and a .219 batting average against in 66.0 innings (11 road starts) while Michael McGreevy is 2-3 with a 6.07 ERA and a .301 opposing batting average in 43.0 innings (eight home games, seven starts) thus far. The Reds hold a slight advantage with runners in scoring
position as they are 21st with a .726 team OPS with runners in scoring position this season, while the Cards are 23rd with a .709 team OPS in those chances. All in all, go with the Cincinnati Reds to win on the road as the better bet.
Over/Under Pick for Reds vs. Cardinals
- OVER ( units)
Both pitchers are struggling a bit when looking into their previous seven starts, as Andrew Abbott is 1-5 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 43.0 innings, while Michael McGreevy is 3-1 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 40.0 innings during that span. Since the All-Star break, these pitching staffs are giving up runs as Cincinnati is 10th with a 4.11 team ERA, while St. Louis is 23rd with a 4.59 team ERA. The over has hit in five of the previous seven games against one anothe,r so go with the OVER here.
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