Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Saturday August 22, 2026

The Cincinnati Reds travel to Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday, August 22. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Cincinnati enters at 61-67 overall and 29-31 on the road, while Arizona is 67-61 overall and a strong 36-27 at home. The Reds have split their last four completed games, while the Diamondbacks have dropped three of their last five despite coming off a 7-6 extra-inning win in Boston. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Cincinnati is expected to start Rhett Lowder, who is 4-8 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 101.0 innings. He has allowed 108 hits with 82 strikeouts, 42 walks and 13 home runs. Arizona counters with Michael Soroka, who owns an 8-3 record, 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 92.0 innings. Soroka has allowed 81 hits while striking out 88, walking only 21 and surrendering six home runs. Arizona has the clear starting-pitching advantage on paper.

Reds Need More Consistency at the Plate

Cincinnati comes into this matchup at 61-67 and sits fifth in the NL Central. The Reds are 29-31 away from home and have gone 2-3 across their last five completed games. Their most recent contest was a wild 10-9 loss to St. Louis after alternating wins and losses throughout that series.

The Reds are batting just .226 as a team with 523 runs, 958 hits and 165 home runs. Their .305 on-base percentage is modest, while a .390 slugging percentage shows that much of their offensive threat comes from power rather than sustained traffic on the bases.

Pitching has also been inconsistent, with Cincinnati carrying a 4.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .246. The Reds have enough power to stay dangerous, but their combination of weak batting average and middling run prevention leaves little margin for error against a stronger home club.

Diamondbacks Hold the Better Overall Profile

Arizona enters at 67-61 and remains in the NL Wild Card mix while sitting third in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have been much better at Chase Field, where they are 36-27 this season. Their recent form has been uneven, though, with losses in three of their last five completed games.

Arizona is batting .243 with 579 runs, 1,044 hits and 126 home runs. The Diamondbacks hold a .316 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage, giving them a better overall offensive profile than Cincinnati despite producing fewer home runs.

The pitching staff has also been more reliable, posting a 4.18 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .252. Those numbers are not dominant, but they compare favourably with Cincinnati's pitching marks, and Saturday's projected starting matchup gives Arizona an even larger edge.

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline

Arizona is the preferred side in this matchup. The Diamondbacks own the better overall record, the stronger home mark and the more favourable starting-pitching matchup. Their scheduled starter brings a 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP into the game, while Cincinnati's starter carries a 5.17 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Cincinnati's .226 team batting average is another concern against a pitcher who has limited baserunners effectively throughout the season. Arizona also owns the superior team WHIP and has been dependable at home. Back the Diamondbacks to use the pitching advantage and home-field edge to control this matchup.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Arizona's scheduled starter has been the strongest individual pitching component in this matchup, allowing just 81 hits and 21 walks over 92 innings while carrying a 2.93 ERA.

Cincinnati's offense has struggled to generate consistent production, and the Reds are batting only .226 as a team. Arizona is more capable offensively, but it is not a high-powered lineup statistically, with 126 home runs and a .398 slugging percentage. If Arizona's starter performs close to his season numbers, the Reds may have difficulty contributing enough runs to push this game beyond the number.

This preview was completed before play on Friday, August 21, 2026.