Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 23 2026

The Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks close their weekend series Sunday afternoon at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. First pitch is scheduled for 4:15 PM ET, with Peacock providing television coverage. Cincinnati enters the weekend at 61-68 overall and 29-32 on the road, while Arizona is 68-61 with a strong 37-27 home record. The Diamondbacks are -136 on the moneyline, Cincinnati is +113, and the total is set at 8.5 runs. Before wagering on Sunday's baseball action, check out our free MLB picks for more predictions and betting analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Cincinnati turns to Andrew Abbott, who enters 6-8 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 139.1 innings. The left-hander has allowed 129 hits and 18 home runs while recording 108 strikeouts against 66 walks. Arizona counters with Mitch Bratt, who is 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 36.2 innings. The left-hander has surrendered 32 hits and five home runs while striking out 25 and walking 22. Abbott has the much larger workload and slightly better ERA and WHIP, giving Cincinnati an edge in the starting-pitching matchup despite Arizona being favoured overall.

Cincinnati Searching for More Offensive Consistency

Cincinnati enters this matchup at 61-68 overall and 29-32 away from home. The Reds had dropped three of their previous four entering Saturday, including Friday's 9-0 loss to Arizona. Their last five completed games produced a 2-3 record, with victories of 5-4 and 6-5 over St. Louis surrounded by losses of 9-0, 10-9 and 3-0.

The larger concern is an offense hitting just .225 with a .305 on-base percentage and .389 slugging percentage. Cincinnati has scored 523 runs and hit 165 home runs, giving the lineup some legitimate power despite its problems consistently putting runners aboard. On the pitching side, the Reds own a 4.51 ERA and 1.41 WHIP while opponents are batting .247.

Power is Cincinnati's clearest path to an upset. The Reds have actually hit considerably more home runs than Arizona, but their low batting average and on-base percentage make it difficult to consistently turn that power into sustained scoring. With Abbott on the mound, Cincinnati needs a cleaner pitching performance and enough early offense to avoid chasing the game.

Arizona Holds the Home-Field Advantage

Arizona enters at 68-61 overall and 37-27 at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks had won consecutive games entering Saturday, including an emphatic 9-0 victory over Cincinnati in Friday's series opener. Arizona is only 2-3 over its last five completed games, however, with its other victory coming 7-6 in extra innings against Boston.

The Diamondbacks have the better offensive averages in this matchup, batting .244 with a .318 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage. They have scored 588 runs on 1,059 hits while hitting 127 home runs. Arizona also owns the better overall pitching profile with a 4.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, although opponents are batting .251.

Arizona's statistical advantage is more about consistency than raw power. The Diamondbacks have scored 65 more runs than Cincinnati despite hitting 38 fewer home runs, while also carrying advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA and WHIP. Combine those numbers with a 37-27 home record, and Arizona deserves to be the favourite.

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -136

Abbott gives Cincinnati a legitimate opportunity to keep this close, but Arizona is the more complete team and the -136 price remains reasonable. The Diamondbacks have the superior overall record, a 37-27 home mark and advantages in most of the important team-level offensive and pitching categories. Cincinnati's .225 batting average and .305 OBP are particularly concerning against a team that has generally done a better job limiting baserunners. Arizona doesn't have a major starting-pitching advantage, but the broader matchup still points toward the home team. Take the Diamondbacks -136.

Pick: Under 8.5

The total of 8.5 offers an interesting under opportunity. Cincinnati has been shut out twice in its last four completed games, and its .225 batting average remains one of the biggest concerns in this matchup. Abbott's 4.07 ERA gives Cincinnati a reasonable chance of keeping Arizona from producing another offensive explosion, while the Reds may struggle to contribute enough runs to push this game over the number. Bratt's 1.47 WHIP introduces some risk, but the better betting angle is still Under 8.5 at -115.

This preview was completed before play began on Saturday, August 22, 2026.