Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Friday August 28 2026

The Cincinnati Reds travel to Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, to face the Chicago Cubs on Friday, August 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET, with coverage on ESPN Unlimited and MLB.TV. Cincinnati enters at 63-71 overall and 31-35 on the road, while Chicago is 76-58 overall and 38-27 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing any wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Cincinnati is expected to start Rhett Lowder, who enters at 5-8 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP across 107 innings. He has allowed 114 hits while recording 83 strikeouts against 43 walks. Chicago is expected to counter with David Peterson, who is 7-7 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through 118.1 innings. He has surrendered 129 hits while striking out 103 and walking 49. Neither starter brings dominant season numbers into this matchup, which could put additional pressure on both offenses to take advantage early.

Reds Trying to Build on Offensive Breakthrough

Cincinnati comes into Friday at 63-71 after snapping a three-game losing streak with a wild 10-9 victory over San Francisco. The Reds had previously lost 3-1 and 5-0 to the Giants after splitting their first two games in Arizona, leaving them 2-3 over their last five contests.

The Reds are batting .227 as a team with 548 runs, 1,010 hits and 173 home runs. They carry a .306 on-base percentage and .392 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, Cincinnati owns a 4.55 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, while opponents are batting .249 against them.

The biggest concern remains offensive consistency. Cincinnati showed its ceiling with 11 runs against Arizona and 10 against San Francisco, but it also scored just one combined run in the two games immediately before Wednesday's breakout. Against Chicago, avoiding another prolonged offensive lull will be critical.

Cubs Return Home Looking to Rebound

Chicago enters Friday at 76-58 after dropping its final two games in Arizona, including a 2-0 loss Wednesday. The Cubs are 2-3 across their last five, with the two victories coming in a 7-0 shutout of Arizona and a 19-2 blowout in Seattle.

Chicago has been the stronger offensive club over the full season. The Cubs are batting .249 with 695 runs, 1,144 hits and 177 home runs. Their .338 on-base percentage and .422 slugging percentage both comfortably exceed Cincinnati's marks. Chicago's pitching staff carries a 4.09 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, with opponents batting .243.

The Cubs' biggest edge in this matchup comes from overall balance. Chicago has scored significantly more runs than Cincinnati while also posting the better ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. That combination becomes even more meaningful at Wrigley Field, where the Cubs are 38-27 this season.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is the side pick. Neither projected starter has impressive season-long run prevention numbers, but the Cubs hold the stronger statistical profile nearly everywhere else. Chicago owns the superior offense, better bullpen-and-staff numbers overall, a strong home record and a commanding 6-1 season-series advantage over Cincinnati. The Reds are capable of explosive games, but their .227 team batting average and recent inconsistency make them difficult to trust on the road. Take the Chicago Cubs moneyline.

Pick: Over 8.5

The total isn't available at the time of writing, but take the Over if the number is set at 8.5. Both expected starters enter with ERAs above 5.00 and WHIPs of at least 1.47, creating opportunities for traffic on the bases. Cincinnati has allowed nine runs in its most recent game, while Chicago has demonstrated considerable offensive upside throughout the season. With both starting-pitcher profiles pointing toward scoring chances, 8.5 would be a playable Over number.

Final Picks: Chicago Cubs Moneyline and Over 8.5 if available.

This preview was completed before game play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.