Cincinnati Reds vs. LA Dodgers, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Use Code SSWC The defending World Series champs open up a Wild Card series on Tuesday night and to make sure you are ready for a title run, we have Reds vs. Dodgers predictions for game one. Cincinnati (83-79, 3rd in N.L. Central) has lined up RHP Hunter Greene (7-4, 2.76 ERA) as their starting pitcher in the opener. Los Angeles (93-49, 1st in N.L. West) counters with LHP Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA). The best of three series kicks off with a 9:08 EST first pitch from Dodger Stadium and stay on top of all of the postseason action with all of our Free MLB Picks.
Reds finish off furious run
It took until the final day of the regular season for the Reds to lock in their first postseason berth in five seasons. They were under .500 as of September but went 9-4 over their final 13 games of the regular season. In that stretch, Cincinnati’s pitching staff had a 2.54 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. This season pitching for the club finished seventh in the National League with a team ERA of 3.86. They were also seventh in the league with 1,380 strikeouts and opponents hit .233 against them, the fourth-best mark in the N.L. The Reds’ starter rotation went 53-49 with a 3.85 ERA in the regular season, while the bullpen contributed 41 saves, 30 wins and a 3.89 ERA.
The offense wasn’t particularly prolific in their stretch run, hitting just .235 over their last 13 games, but they did score 51 runs behind 33 extra-base hits to back some strong pitching. This season, Cincinnati’s offense finished 11th in the National League with a .245 team batting average, and their 716 runs were eighth in the league. Gavin Lux finished the season with a team-high .269 batting average, but hit just .243 over 22 games in September. Elly De La Cruz leads the club with 22 home runs, 86 RBIs, 102 RBIs and 37 stolen bases. The shortstop hit .313 with three home runs over his last nine games.
Starter spotlight
- Hunter Greene faced the Dodgers once this season, in late August, earning a loss after allowing five runs, six hits, two home runs and two walks over five innings.
- Lifetime, the Reds’ starter has made three starts at Dodger Stadium and is 0-2 with a 3.78 ERA.
- The Reds went 6-3 over Greene’s last nine starts.
- Over his last 43 innings, struck out 52 batters and allowed six home runs.
- Opponents are hitting .192 against Greene this season.
- Went 2-0 with a 2.64 ERA over last five starts.
Dodgers gear up for repeat
For the 13th straight season, the Dodgers have reached the postseason, in search of a third World Series title in the last six seasons. They wrapped up their fourth straight N.L. West title and finished very strong, going 9-2 over their last 11 games. Over the last half month, Los Angeles’ pitching staff has had a 3.01 ERA, and teams have hit .192 against them over their last 13 games. On the year, they finished eighth in the league with a 3.95 ERA to go with a 1.26 WHIP. Teams were hitting just .232 against them, third best in the N.L., and they struck out a league-high 1,505 batters. Starting pitching for the Dodgers had a 49-36 record and a 3.69 ERA, while relievers were 44-33 with 46 saves and a 4.27 ERA.
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The Los Angeles offense put up 102 runs over their last 13 games while hitting only .235 as a team. Their .253 batting average this season was the third best in the National League, and no one had more than their 825 runs. Before the regular season concluded, Shohei Ohtani was able to break his own Dodgers’ home run record, hitting his 55th on Sunday. He hit .312 with 10 home runs in September and finished the year with a .289 batting average, 102 RBIs and an MLB-best 146 runs. Freddie Freeman finished third in the N.L. with a .295 batting average and 39 doubles. Mookie Betts hit .306 and drove in 24 runs over his last 27 games.
Starter spotlight
- Blake Snell did not face the Reds this season.
- In his career, the left-hander is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts against Cincinnati.
- Los Angeles went 5-3 in his last eight starts.
- Struck out 10 batters or more in three of 11 starts, including two of his last three efforts.
- Allowed only three home runs and struck out 72 batters over 61.1 innings.
- Was 2-2 with a 2.76 ERA in his last five starts.
Reds vs. Dodgers Picks
Money Line Wild Card Game 1 Pick for Reds vs. Dodgers
- Dodgers -1.5 (+108) (5 units)
The Dodgers dominated the season series against the Reds, winning five of six games by an average of 3.6 runs per game. Both sides finished the season very strong, behind some very good pitching, which I fully expect to carry over, especially considering that both offenses weren’t as hot. Greene has had a strong season, when healthy, but he struggled against the Dodgers when he faced them a little over a month ago, giving up a pair of home runs to Andy Pages. Cincinnati has not seen Snell this season, which should benefit the left-hander. Since returning to the rotation at the beginning of August, Snell has been one of the most consistent arms for Los Angeles, earning him this slot in the postseason. In his last two starts at home, he allowed a combined four hits, four walks and struck out 23 batters over 13 innings. The Dodgers hit .260 at home this season and their 447 runs at Dodger Stadium are the most in the N.L. The Reds’ offense was 12th among National League teams on the road this season with a.238 batting average and they scored 351 runs away from home, only four of which came at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles swept Cincinnati when they played a three-game set late in August, and all three wins were by at least three runs.
Take the Dodgers with the run line.
Over/Under Pick for Reds vs. Dodgers
- Under 7 (4 units)
The six regular-season games between these two saw the under go 4-1-1. The Reds have had their struggles trying to put up runs against the Dodgers this season, scoring two runs or less in half of the games. When they came to Los Angeles in late December, they were shut out once and scored a combined four runs. They also haven’t been hitting the ball down the stretch, so they don’t come into this matchup with any offensive momentum. On the flip side, pitching has been great for the Reds, as it has for the Dodgers, who have also struggled to hit down the stretch. Los Angeles has lacked offensive consistency all season and their lineup is extremely top-heavy. The under is 7-2-1 in the last ten games between these two.
Take the under.
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