Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Friday June 26 2026

The Cincinnati Reds visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, June 26, 2026, at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET and coverage available on MLB.TV. Cincinnati enters at 37-42 overall and 18-20 away from home, while Pittsburgh comes in at 40-40 overall and 21-20 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers Set the Tone

Andrew Abbott is expected to start for Cincinnati, bringing a 5-4 record, 3.83 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 84.2 innings pitched, 81 hits allowed, 64 strikeouts, 39 walks, and 12 home runs allowed into the matchup. Pittsburgh is expected to counter with Paul Skenes, who enters with a 6-7 record, 2.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 88.0 innings pitched, 64 hits allowed, 107 strikeouts, 18 walks, and nine home runs allowed. The matchup leans strongly toward Pittsburgh on the mound based on the provided ERA, WHIP, strikeout, hit, and walk numbers.

Cincinnati Looks to Stop the Slide Away from Home

Cincinnati comes into this game with a 37-42 overall record and an 18-20 record on the road. The Reds have recently lost to Milwaukee by scores of 6-5, 2-0, and 2-1 in 10 innings, while also recently winning over New York by scores of 4-1 and 10-2. That gives Cincinnati two wins in its last five games, but the three straight recent losses put pressure on the road team entering this matchup.

The Reds are batting .226 with 331 runs, 599 hits, 97 home runs, a .309 on-base percentage, and a .389 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, Cincinnati has a 4.51 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 356 walks, 630 strikeouts, and a .248 opponent batting average. The Reds are also 17-17 in day games.

The biggest concern for Cincinnati is the combination of team batting average and pitching traffic. The Reds are hitting .226 as a team and carry a 1.45 WHIP on the mound, both of which create a difficult margin against a Pittsburgh team with stronger batting and pitching numbers. Cincinnati does have the edge in home runs, but the broader profile points to a team that needs cleaner run prevention to stay in this one.

Pittsburgh Has a Chance to Lean on Balance

Pittsburgh enters with a 40-40 overall record and a 21-20 mark at home. The Pirates have recently won over Seattle 11-1, recently lost to Seattle 3-2, recently won over Colorado 8-6, and recently lost to Colorado by scores of 2-1 and 4-3. Pittsburgh has two wins in its last five games, but the recent 11-run performance gives the home team a strong result to build from.

The Pirates are batting .257 with 404 runs, 712 hits, 94 home runs, a .336 on-base percentage, and a .411 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 289 walks, 733 strikeouts, and a .235 opponent batting average. Pittsburgh is also 19-15 in day games.

Pittsburgh’s clearest strength is its overall statistical balance. The Pirates have the better batting average, more runs, more hits, higher on-base percentage, higher slugging percentage, lower ERA, lower WHIP, fewer walks allowed, more strikeouts, and lower opponent batting average. Cincinnati has a slight edge in home runs, but Pittsburgh holds advantages in most of the provided categories.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick

• Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline

Pittsburgh is the pick because the Pirates have the stronger overall record, the better home record compared with Cincinnati’s road mark, and the matchup predictor gives them a 71.4 percent chance compared with 28.6 percent for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh also has the better team batting average, more runs, more hits, stronger on-base percentage, stronger slugging percentage, lower ERA, lower WHIP, and better opponent batting average. Based only on the provided data, the Pirates are the more complete side.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Total Pick

• Pick: Take the over if the total is set at 8.5.

I would look toward the over if the total is set at 8.5 because Pittsburgh has scored 404 runs and recently produced an 11-1 win, while Cincinnati has allowed a 4.51 team ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Cincinnati has also hit 97 home runs, and Pittsburgh has strong team contact numbers with a .257 average and .336 on-base percentage. The pitching matchup gives Pittsburgh an edge, but the team scoring and run-prevention numbers still point me slightly toward enough offense if the number lands at 8.5.

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 6 – Cincinnati Reds 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.