Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Monday, September 8, 2025
The MLB action continues on Monday with a National League showdown between the Cincinnati Reds (72-71) and the San Diego Padres (78-65), and we’ve got you covered with our Reds vs. Padres prediction. Below I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 9:40 ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Reds Hanging Around in the N.L.
The Cincinnati Reds haven’t made the playoffs for four straight seasons, but they’ve hovered around .500 in three out of the four years. That’s a trend that may continue in 2025, as the Reds are back above .500 at 72-71, but sit outside of the wild card race heading into the new week. Cincinnati is 4.0 games behind New York for the final spot, and they’re now priced at +1600 to make the postseason. The Reds did help their case over the weekend, taking two out of three games against the Mets (L: 5-4, W: 6-3, W: 3-2) in Cincy.
Sunday’s 3-2 victory over the Mets saw Hunter Greene turn in a gem, throwing 7.0 innings and allowing only one earned run. He picked up the win while striking out 12 batters. Offensively, Austin Hays drove in a couple of RBI, going 1-for-3 at the dish.
- Nick Lodolo gets the nod for Monday’s series opener, and the 27-year-old has been excellent in 24 starts (134.1 IP) this year.
- The left-hander comes into the new week at 8-7, bringing in a 3.22 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
- Lodolo last pitched on Wednesday against the Dodgers, where he gave up four earned runs on five hits and a walk over 4.2 innings.
- He took the loss in a 5-1 defeat.
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Padres Holding Strong in the Wild Card
Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have been competitive in the National League this season, and they’re battling with the Dodgers to secure the division title in the West. Heading into the new week, the Friars (78-65) are now just 1.0 game behind the divisional rival for the lead. Los Angeles is a sizable -260 favorite to win the West, while San Diego comes back at +200. They won’t play again down the stretch. The Padres were riding a five-game slide heading into Saturday, but they snapped the losing streak and rattled off two consecutive wins against the Rockies (10-8, 8-1) to close out the weekend.
Sunday’s 8-1 victory over the Rockies saw a sharp performance in all aspects of the game. Pitching-wise, Dylan Cease (5.0 IP, 1 ER) was solid enough to pick up a win. Offensively, Manny Machado, Ramon Laureano, Gavin Sheets, and Jackson Merrill all homered in the winning effort.
- San Diego has yet to name a starting pitcher for Monday’s series opener.
- Overall, their pitching staff has been elite, ranking fourth in ERA (3.67) and first in opposing batting average (.226).
- In the bullpen specifically, the Padres are first (3.14) and fourth (.214), respectively.
- They’ve gone 44-for-59 (74.6%) in save opportunities.
Reds vs. Padres Pick
Moneyline Pick for Reds vs. Padres
- Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (5 units)
While the Padres closed out their weekend series with a couple of wins over the Rockies, they’re still just 2-5 SU over their last seven games. I’m not convinced that they’ve completely turned things around following two victories over lowly Colorado.
On the flip side, the Reds have been crushing the ball recently. Over the last seven days, Cincinnati is sixth in wOBA (.357) and eighth in ISO (.185). Runs could be tough to come by in this game, but with the way the Reds are hitting, I trust their offense more in this spot. I’ll ride with Nick Lodolo (3.22 ERA) and the red-hot Cincinnati offense.
Over/Under Pick for Reds vs. Padres
- Under (5 units)
I’m not expecting much offense in this game, so I’m riding with the under. For starters, Nick Lodolo has been lights out this season. Specifically over his last seven outings (39.2 IP), the left-hander has logged four quality starts while posting a 2.50 ERA. Lodolo also faced the Padres back in June, holding them to one earned run over 5.1 innings.
Additionally, the Padres haven’t been great recently, ranking 22nd in wOBA (.295) and 28th in ISO (.107) over the last seven days. During their current 2-5 SU stretch, they’re scoring only 4.3 runs per game. There are also a couple of outliers from the hitter-friendly Coors Field in there, so that number could be artificially inflated. All things considered, I think it’s best to play the under.
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