Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Picks - Tuesday, September 9, 2025
A pair of Wild Card contenders duke it out on the West Coast so get locked in with our Reds vs. Padres predictions. Cincinnati (72-71, 3rd in N.L. Central) will run RHP Zack Littell (9-8, 3.81 ERA) out as their starter. San Diego (78-65, 2nd in N.L. West) counters with RHP Michael King (4-2, 2.81 ERA). The first pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 EST and when it comes to MLB picks, our MLB Predictions are a hit.
(This game was published prior to the conclusion of Monday’s games.)
Reds desperately trying to make up for lost time
Since posting a 67-60 record, the Reds have hit some massive potholes, running into two three-game losing streaks and one that ran five games. They have gone 4-3 over their last seven, including two straight wins prior to this series. Their pitching staff was eighth in the National League with a 3.95 ERA, accompanied by a 1.25 WHIP and .237 opponents’ batting average. The relievers have been good for 33 saves, 25 wins and an N.L.-best 4.07 ERA over 533.2 innings. The offense tallied 647 runs through 143 games while hitting .248 as a team, seventh in the N.L.
Reds’ hitters struck out 1,243 times, third most in the National League, and their 470 walks were tied for ninth. Elly De La Cruz collected his 29th double of the season on Sunday, tying him for 15th most in the N.L. Over his last 25 games, the shortstop hit .229 with nine extra-base hits, seven RBIs and 16 runs scored. Austin Hays had a hit and drove in two on Sunday, extending his hitting streak to five games. The outfielder hit .269 over his last 25 games, driving in 19 while scoring 13 times.
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Starter spotlight
- Zack Littell makes his 28th start of the season.
- He has gone without a decision over his last five starts, and in his six starts since coming to the Reds at the trade deadline, he is 1-0 with 4.78 ERA and 27 strikeouts.
- The Reds’ hurler allowed just one walk in his last two starts and only 28 on the year.
- Opponents are hitting .253 versus the right-hander.
- Littell is 2-0 lifetime against the Padres with a 4.98 ERA in 19 games, only one start.
Padres in good position heading down the stretch
The Padres are trying to put a five-game losing streak in the rear view and they started to pull away with back-to-back wins in Colorado before the start of this series. They went into the new week in the second Wild Card spot in the National League, with a two-game lead on the next club. Padres’ pitching ranked second in the league with a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and first with a .226 opponents’ batting average. Out of the bullpen, their relievers have provided 44 saves and 29 wins while posting a league-best 3.12 ERA. San Diego’s offense had .253 batting average through 143 games with 610 runs scored.
San Diego’s hitters were second-to-last in the National League with 127 home runs, but their 1,015 strikeouts were also fewest in the league. Jackson Merrill had a three-hit day on Sunday, which included his 10th home run of the season. After going hitless in his first four games back from the injured list, the second-year outfielder had four hits in his last two games, with two extra-base hits. In pursuit of a fourth straight batting title, Luis Arraez is eighth in the N.L. with a .285 average.
Starter spotlight
- The team will be activating Michael King, who has been out since early August with knee inflammation, for his 12th start of the year.
- He has had two IL stints this season, the first lasting nearly three months.
- He last started on August 8th and was removed in the third inning after facing only 11 batters and allowing two runs, four hits and two walks.
- Opponents are hitting .206 with six home runs and 19 walks against him this season.
- King is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA lifetime versus Cincinnati.
Reds vs. Padres Pick
Spread Pick for Reds vs. Padres
- Padres -1.5 (+112) (5 units)
This is the second series of the season between the two and the Reds own a 2-1 advantage in the head-to-head. Neither of these starters tossed in that late July series. Of course, King was sidelined as he missed more than half the season after a very promising start. The right-hander can still be a big gun for this team down the stretch as they jockey for a postseason spot. He should, at the very least, be well rested at this point and his injuries should not bother him without their being major resistance. That said, I think he returns with some gusto, ready to fire in front of the hometown crowd where he is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in eight starts this season. Earlier in the season, he struck out eight batters or more five times in the span of his first 11 starts. Littell hasn’t been bad overall on the road this season, but he has yielded 20 home runs and 21 of his 28 walks away from home. Prior to the start of this series, San Diego went 3-2 in the last five games between these two, with all of the wins coming by two or more runs.
Take the Padres with the run line.
Over/Under Pick for Reds vs. Padres
- Over 7.5 (5 units)
When they met in July, the total was split over three games, 1-1-1, as the teams averaged a combined eight runs per game. Noted just above, Littell has served up a fair amount of home runs on the road this season and he’s also allowed a ton of walks, which is an area that the power-limited Padres are more apt to take advantage of. The Reds’ starter has given up at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts. King is obviously a question mark, given its his first game back in a month. When he returned from his initial IL stint, things didn’t end well as he landed right back on it after only two innings. While I do expect him to go longer in this game, I think there may be a couple of hiccups along the way as he readjusts. The Reds’ offense scored five runs or more in five of their last seven games. The Padres put up 18 runs in their last two games in Colorado. The over is 5-2-1 in the last eight games between the clubs.
Take the over.
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