Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for July 24, 2026

The Cincinnati Reds visit the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri, on July 24, 2026. The game is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. and will be televised on MLB.TV. Cincinnati enters the matchup with a 47-54 overall record and a 25-26 record on the road, while St. Louis is 52-49 overall and 26-26 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Reds a 38.8% chance of winning and the Cardinals a 61.2% chance. The listed game-time temperature is 70 degrees. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Starting Pitchers

Rhett Lowder is scheduled to start for Cincinnati against St. Louis right-hander Dustin May. Lowder enters with a 3-7 record, a 5.75 ERA, and a 1.64 WHIP across 72 innings. He has allowed 83 hits and nine home runs while recording 61 strikeouts and issuing 35 walks. May is 5-7 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through 98 innings. He has surrendered 97 hits and seven home runs while collecting 95 strikeouts and issuing 32 walks. May owns the lower ERA and WHIP while recording 34 more strikeouts and issuing three fewer walks despite pitching 26 additional innings. He has also allowed two fewer home runs.

Cincinnati Brings Recent Road Momentum to St. Louis

Cincinnati enters Friday’s game with a 47-54 overall record and a 25-26 mark away from home. The Reds have won three of their last five games, including consecutive road victories over Seattle by scores of 5-3 and 4-2. They also recently defeated Colorado 9-6. Cincinnati’s two losses during this stretch were an 8-0 setback against Seattle and a 10-3 defeat against Colorado. The Reds have therefore alternated between productive offensive performances and games in which their scoring has been limited.

The Reds have recorded a .230 batting average, a .309 on-base percentage, and a .400 slugging percentage. They have collected 777 hits, scored 423 runs, and hit 134 home runs. Cincinnati’s pitching staff enters with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .248 batting average. The staff has recorded 815 strikeouts and issued 437 walks. Cincinnati has also compiled a 25-34 record in night games.

Cincinnati’s clearest advantage is its power production. The Reds have hit 24 more home runs than the Cardinals and own a slugging percentage that is 16 points higher despite trailing in batting average, on-base percentage, hits, and total runs. The recent road victories also offer encouragement entering another away matchup. However, Cincinnati’s pitching numbers present a concern. The Reds have the higher team ERA and WHIP, while their scheduled starter also enters with the higher ERA and WHIP in Friday’s matchup.

St. Louis Looks to Rediscover Its Winning Form at Busch Stadium

St. Louis enters the series opener with a 52-49 overall record and an even 26-26 mark at home. The Cardinals have lost four of their last five games, although they ended that stretch with a 1-0 victory over the Angels. Their four defeats came by scores of 5-1 and 3-2 against the Angels and 8-7 in 10 innings and 5-3 against Arizona. St. Louis was competitive in several of those losses, with two decided by one run.

The Cardinals have posted a .240 batting average, a .316 on-base percentage, and a .384 slugging percentage. They have accumulated 811 hits, scored 448 runs, and hit 110 home runs. St. Louis’ pitching staff carries a 4.12 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP while allowing opposing hitters to bat .251. The staff has collected 764 strikeouts and issued 338 walks. The Cardinals have also produced a strong 35-26 record in night games.

St. Louis holds the stronger overall run-prevention profile. The Cardinals have a team ERA that is 0.44 lower than Cincinnati’s and a WHIP that is 0.10 better. They have issued 99 fewer walks, while their scheduled starter has the better ERA and WHIP. St. Louis also leads Cincinnati by 10 points in batting average, seven points in on-base percentage, 34 hits, and 25 runs. The Cardinals trail significantly in home runs and slugging percentage, but ESPN Analytics gives them a substantial advantage in the matchup predictor.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

• Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline

St. Louis is my side selection based on its advantages in starting pitching, overall run prevention, offensive consistency, and the matchup predictor. The Cardinals’ scheduled starter owns a 4.78 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, compared with Cincinnati’s starter at 5.75 and 1.64. St. Louis also holds the lower team ERA and WHIP while issuing considerably fewer walks. Cincinnati brings better recent form and greater home-run production, but the Cardinals lead in overall record, batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage, and night-game results.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Total Pick

• Pick: Over 8.5

Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. Cincinnati’s scheduled starter carries a 5.75 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP, while the Reds’ pitching staff owns a 4.56 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Three of Cincinnati’s last five games produced at least eight combined runs, including totals of 15 and 13. Three of St. Louis’ last five also reached at least eight combined runs, with totals of 15, 10, and eight. Both scheduled starters have ERAs above 4.75, making the over my preferred total.

Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals 6 – Cincinnati Reds 4

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.