Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Friday September 25 2026

The Cincinnati Reds visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, on Friday, September 25, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Cincinnati enters at 73-85 overall and 35-42 on the road, while Toronto is 77-82 overall and 40-38 at home. The Reds have dropped three of their last five after suffering a 3-2 extra-inning loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, while the Blue Jays return home on a three-game losing streak after being swept in Baltimore. Cincinnati sits fifth in the NL Central, 26 games behind Milwaukee, while Toronto is fifth in the AL East, 19.5 games behind Tampa Bay. This is the first meeting of the season between the clubs. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Cincinnati is scheduled to start Nick Lodolo, who enters at 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 103.2 innings. He has allowed 108 hits and 20 home runs while recording 80 strikeouts against 44 walks. Toronto counters with Jose Soriano, who is 12-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 174.1 innings. He has surrendered 147 hits and 17 home runs while striking out 167 and walking 73. Toronto owns a significant starting-pitching advantage on paper. Soriano has the lower ERA and WHIP, has worked more than 70 additional innings and has allowed fewer home runs despite the much larger workload. Lodolo's combination of a 5.04 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 20 homers allowed creates an obvious concern against a Toronto team that will be playing at home.

Cincinnati Needs More Consistency at the Plate

Cincinnati comes into this series at 73-85 after splitting its two games in Atlanta. The Reds earned a 4-0 victory on September 22 before losing 3-2 in 10 innings the following day. Cincinnati is just 2-3 over its last five games, with its other victory coming in a 6-4 decision against Chicago. The Reds were beaten 5-2 and 9-1 in the other two games against the Cubs, leaving them with 15 runs scored and 21 allowed over this five-game stretch.

The season-long offensive numbers help explain Cincinnati's struggles. The Reds are batting only .229 with 648 runs, 1,199 hits and 208 home runs. They own a .305 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. The home-run total shows that Cincinnati can generate offense quickly, but getting enough runners on base has been a persistent problem. The pitching numbers are even more concerning, with the Reds carrying a 4.84 team ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .254 opponent batting average. Cincinnati has issued 653 walks while recording 1,269 strikeouts.

The Reds' clearest path Friday is their power. Cincinnati has hit 58 more home runs than Toronto this season despite scoring only 12 more runs overall. That disparity illustrates both the strength and weakness of this offense: the Reds can change a game with one swing, but their .229 batting average and .305 OBP make sustained rallies more difficult. With a starter carrying a 5.04 ERA on the mound, Cincinnati may need its power to produce multiple runs rather than expecting the pitching staff to control the game.

Toronto Has the Better Pitching Matchup

Toronto enters Friday at 77-82 and has lost three consecutive games, all against Baltimore. The Blue Jays fell 4-3 on September 21 before losing both games of Wednesday's doubleheader by identical 4-2 scores. Toronto is only 1-4 over its last five, with a 7-2 victory over Texas representing its lone win. Despite the recent skid, the Blue Jays return to Rogers Centre with a 40-38 home record and a favorable starting-pitching matchup.

Toronto is batting .248 as a team, considerably better than Cincinnati's .229 average, but the Blue Jays have generated only 636 runs with 150 home runs. They have accumulated 1,327 hits with a .310 on-base percentage and .382 slugging percentage. Toronto's bigger statistical advantage comes from its pitching staff. The Blue Jays own a 3.92 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .235 batting average. They have also produced 1,380 strikeouts against 586 walks.

The matchup provides Toronto with an opportunity to break out of its three-game slide. The Blue Jays have the better batting average, on-base percentage, team ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. Cincinnati's substantial advantage in home-run production prevents this from being a comfortable matchup, but Toronto should have more opportunities to generate traffic on the bases. If the Blue Jays can limit the Reds' power, their overall statistical profile gives them the advantage.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline

Toronto has struggled recently, but Friday presents a favorable spot for the Blue Jays to end their three-game losing streak. The most important difference is on the mound. Soriano brings a 3.72 ERA and 1.26 WHIP into the matchup compared with Lodolo's 5.04 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. That individual advantage is supported by the season-long team numbers, where Toronto owns a 3.92 ERA and 1.30 WHIP compared with Cincinnati's 4.84 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Blue Jays also have the better batting average and will be playing at home, where they are 40-38. Cincinnati's power gives the Reds upset potential, but Toronto has enough advantages across the pitching matchup to make the Blue Jays the side.

Pick: Over 8.0 or Lower

There are enough vulnerabilities on the Cincinnati side to lean toward offense in this matchup. The Reds have a 4.84 team ERA and 1.44 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .254, and Lodolo enters with a 5.04 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 20 home runs allowed in only 103.2 innings. Toronto has not been a particularly powerful offense, but this is a matchup where its ability to put the ball in play could translate into scoring opportunities. Cincinnati also brings 208 home runs into Rogers Centre, giving the Reds a path to contribute against Toronto despite the pitching disadvantage. Over 8.0 or lower is the preferred position if the market opens in that range, while a move toward 9.0 would substantially reduce the value.

Final Picks: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline and Over 8.0 or Lower

This preview was completed on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.