Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 26 2026

The Cincinnati Reds visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, on Saturday, September 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Cincinnati enters the weekend at 74-85 overall and 36-42 on the road, while Toronto is 77-82 overall and 40-38 at home. The Reds sit fifth in the NL Central, 26 games behind Milwaukee, while the Blue Jays are fifth in the AL East and 19 games behind Tampa Bay. Cincinnati has won two of its last three completed games, while Toronto enters the weekend on a three-game losing streak. Friday's series opener had not been completed at the time this preview was prepared and is excluded from the analysis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Cincinnati is scheduled to start Rhett Lowder, who enters at 6-12 with a 6.01 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 127.1 innings. He has allowed 144 hits and 18 home runs while recording 101 strikeouts against 54 walks. Toronto counters with Spencer Miles, who has been considerably more effective at 6-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 94.2 innings. He has surrendered only 78 hits and five home runs while striking out 91 and walking 24. The starting pitching comparison is the clearest advantage in this matchup. Toronto owns a 3.44-run edge in ERA and a substantial WHIP advantage, while Miles has allowed fewer than one hit per inning and has done an excellent job limiting home-run damage.

Reds Bring Power but Plenty of Pitching Risk

Cincinnati enters Saturday at 74-85 overall and has been more competitive recently than its season record suggests. The Reds are 2-3 across their last five completed games, but both victories came against Atlanta, including a 4-0 shutout and a 7-6 road win. Their three losses during that stretch came by scores of 3-2 in 10 innings, 9-1 and 5-2. Cincinnati has scored 16 runs while allowing 23 across those five games.

The Reds are batting only .228 as a team with 655 runs and 1,206 hits, but their 211 home runs provide an important source of offense. Cincinnati carries a .305 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage. Pitching has been the larger problem, with the staff posting a 4.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. The Reds have issued 657 walks against 1,273 strikeouts while allowing opponents to hit .255.

Cincinnati's power gives it a chance to create runs quickly, but the overall offensive profile remains inconsistent because of the low batting average and on-base percentage. The larger concern Saturday is run prevention. The Reds already own the weaker season-long pitching numbers, and their scheduled starter enters with a 6.01 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. That creates a difficult matchup against a Toronto lineup that does not need to be dominant offensively if it receives another strong outing from its starter.

Blue Jays Have a Starting Pitching Advantage

Toronto enters the weekend at 77-82 overall and 40-38 at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have dropped four of their last five completed games and three straight, including consecutive 4-2 losses at Baltimore. Their lone victory during the five-game stretch was a convincing 7-2 road win over Texas. Toronto has scored 16 runs and allowed 20 over those five games.

The Blue Jays are batting .248 with 636 runs, 1,327 hits and 150 home runs. They own a .310 on-base percentage and .382 slugging percentage. Although Cincinnati has generated considerably more home-run power, Toronto holds a 20-point advantage in batting average. The Blue Jays also have the superior pitching staff statistically, carrying a 3.92 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 1,380 strikeouts against 586 walks while limiting opponents to a .235 batting average.

Toronto's season-long pitching advantage becomes particularly important Saturday. The Blue Jays have struggled to generate consistent offense recently, but they may not need a huge scoring output in this matchup. Their starter has allowed only 78 hits and five home runs in 94.2 innings, while Cincinnati brings one of the weaker overall offensive averages in baseball. If Toronto can generate early offense against Cincinnati's struggling starter, the Blue Jays should be positioned to control the game.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline

Toronto is the preferred side Saturday because the starting pitching differential is too substantial to overlook. The Blue Jays counter Cincinnati's 6.01 ERA and 1.55 WHIP starter with a pitcher carrying a 2.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Toronto also owns the better season-long staff numbers, with a 3.92 ERA compared with Cincinnati's 4.85 and a .235 opponent batting average compared with .255 for the Reds. Cincinnati's 211 home runs create some upset potential, but Toronto's starter has surrendered only five homers across 94.2 innings. The Blue Jays' recent form is concerning, but this is a favorable matchup for them to reverse that trend.

Pick: Under 8.5 or Higher

The under becomes attractive at 8.5 or higher primarily because Toronto should be able to suppress Cincinnati's offense. The Blue Jays' starter owns a 2.57 ERA and has allowed only 78 hits through 94.2 innings, while Cincinnati is batting just .228 with a .305 OBP. Toronto has also scored only 16 runs across its last five completed games and carries a relatively modest .382 slugging percentage for the season. Cincinnati's starting pitching creates some risk because of the 6.01 ERA, but Toronto has not consistently produced enough offense to make an over the preferred position. At 8.5 or better, the under provides enough room for a Toronto-controlled game without requiring Cincinnati to be completely shut down.

Final Picks: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline and Under 8.5 or Higher

This preview was completed on Friday, September 25, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.