Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 27 2026

The Cincinnati Reds visit the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, on Sunday, September 27, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Cincinnati enters at 74-86 overall and 36-43 on the road, while Toronto is 78-82 overall and 41-38 at home. The Reds sit fifth in the NL Central, 27 games behind Milwaukee, while Toronto is fifth in the AL East, 19 games behind Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays won Friday's series opener 6-5, while Saturday's game had not been completed when this preview was prepared and is excluded from the analysis. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Cincinnati is scheduled to start Brandon Williamson, who enters at 5-4 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP through 49.2 innings. He has allowed 43 hits and eight home runs while recording 33 strikeouts against 27 walks. Toronto had not announced its starting pitcher when this preview was completed. Williamson's 27 walks in fewer than 50 innings are a concern, particularly against a Toronto offense carrying the better batting average and on-base percentage into the matchup. However, the Blue Jays' undecided starter creates significant uncertainty on the other side and should be confirmed before wagering.

Reds Continue to Rely Heavily on Power

Cincinnati enters Sunday at 74-86 overall and has gone 2-3 across its last five completed games. The Reds lost Friday's opener 6-5 after earning a 7-6 victory at Atlanta. Cincinnati previously suffered a 3-2 extra-inning loss against the Braves after shutting them out 4-0. The Reds' other defeat during this stretch was a 9-1 loss against Chicago. Cincinnati has scored 19 runs and allowed 24 across those five games.

The Reds are batting .229 with 660 runs, 1,218 hits and 212 home runs. They own a .305 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage. Cincinnati's pitching staff has struggled, producing a 4.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with 1,279 strikeouts against 662 walks while allowing opponents to bat .255.

Power is Cincinnati's clearest advantage in this matchup. The Reds have hit 212 home runs compared with only 150 for Toronto, a substantial difference of 62. Cincinnati has also scored 18 more runs despite having 119 fewer hits. That indicates how dependent the Reds have been on extra-base damage rather than sustained baserunner production. Against a Toronto starter who remains undecided, that power gives Cincinnati some upset potential, but the Reds' .229 batting average and .305 OBP make the offense much less consistent from game to game.

Blue Jays Own the Significant Pitching Advantage

Toronto enters Sunday at 78-82 overall and snapped a three-game losing streak with Friday's 6-5 victory over Cincinnati. Before that win, the Blue Jays dropped three consecutive games at Baltimore by scores of 4-2, 4-2 and 4-3. Toronto's other victory over its last five completed games was a 7-2 road win against Texas. The Blue Jays have scored 20 runs and allowed 19 during that span.

Toronto is batting .248 with 642 runs, 1,337 hits and 150 home runs. The Blue Jays own a .311 on-base percentage and .382 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been significantly better than Cincinnati's, posting a 3.92 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 1,391 strikeouts against 587 walks while limiting opposing hitters to a .235 average.

The Blue Jays' pitching advantage is substantial enough to offset Cincinnati's superior power numbers. Toronto's ERA is 0.93 runs lower, its WHIP is 0.15 lower, and opponents are batting 20 points worse against Blue Jays pitching. Toronto has also issued 75 fewer walks while recording 112 more strikeouts. The Blue Jays' offense has not produced as much power, but its .248 batting average gives it a 19-point advantage over Cincinnati and could become especially important against a Reds staff that has struggled to keep runners off base.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline

Toronto gets the moneyline selection despite not having a confirmed starter at the time of this preview. Cincinnati has the more dangerous home-run profile, but Toronto owns significant advantages in both contact hitting and run prevention. The Blue Jays are batting .248 compared with Cincinnati's .229, while their pitching staff carries a 3.92 ERA and 1.30 WHIP against the Reds' 4.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Cincinnati's scheduled starter also enters with a 4.89 ERA and has issued 27 walks in only 49.2 innings, creating an opportunity for Toronto to consistently generate baserunners. The Blue Jays took Friday's opener and have the better home record than Cincinnati's road mark. Until Toronto's starter is announced there is additional risk, but the overall statistical profile favors the Blue Jays.

Pick: Over 8.5 or Lower

The over is the preferred total if the number is 8.5 or lower. Friday's opener produced 11 runs, and Cincinnati enters Sunday with a scheduled starter carrying a 4.89 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The Reds' full pitching staff has a 4.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, while Cincinnati's 212 home runs provide the offense with the ability to generate runs quickly even when its batting average is poor. Toronto's undecided starting situation adds another element of uncertainty that makes an under difficult to support before the pitching matchup is finalized. The Blue Jays should have scoring opportunities against Cincinnati, while the Reds' power provides enough offensive upside on the other side to make Over 8.5 or lower the preferred position.

Final Picks: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline and Over 8.5 or Lower

This preview was completed on Saturday, September 26, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.