Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Picks, Wednesday, September 3, 2025
Boston continues its homestand on Wednesday at home to Cleveland. Find out more about this big game with our Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm ET at Fenway Park, home of the Red Sox.
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Note: This article was published prior to the start of Boston's game against Cleveland on September 2.
Guardians cling to playoff dream
The Guardians kept their thin postseason hopes alive last week with four straight wins but they still have some ground to make up with the end of the regular season fast approaching. Cleveland sits third in the AL Central, 10.5 games behind leader Detroit and 4.0 games out of the AL Wild Card spots.
On Wednesday, Cleveland is likely to start Logan Allen. The left-hander has gone 7-10 with a 4.42 ERA in 25 starts (26 appearances) so far this year, striking out 83 batters in 102.0 innings. In his last start, Allen pitched 6.0 innings against the Mariners, giving up four earned runs to get a no-decision. Command has been a concern for Allen lately: he has issued three or more walks in all of his last five starts, which has contributed to his inflated ERA of 5.96 for August.
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Red Sox ready for division battle
The Boston Red Sox are on a 35-18 run since the start of July, transforming a season that appeared set to end without playoff ball early on. Boston is now just 2.5 games back from Toronto at the top of the AL East with huge series against both the Blue Jays and Yankees coming up later in September which may decide the destiny of the division.
The Sox may give a second MLB start to rookie Payton Tolle. The lefty picked up eight K’s in his majors debut against Pittsburgh last week while giving up two earned runs in 5.1 innings. Red Sox pitching has been strong across the board recently, restricting opponents to three runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 games.
Red Sox -1.5 (five units)
Boston is on a roll and I am backing the home team to cover against Cleveland on Wednesday. Allen was rocked in his last appearance against the Red Sox and gave up seven earned runs in 4.1 innings to take the loss. The Red Sox is 4-1 on the runline against the Guardians this season and have covered in all four of their most recent meetings. Boston also has the edge at the plate with a .726 team OPS over the last 30 days compared to Cleveland’s league-worst .570.
Take the Red Sox on the runline.
Under (five units)
Runs have been very hard to come by for Cleveland lately, and I expect this game to be no different, given Tolle’s positive impact on his debut against another light-hitting team in the Pirates. The Guardians have had huge problems hitting lefties this year, ranking 29th on OPS vs. southpaws (.631) and 28th on batting average (.219). Even if they can get to the rookie, they will find little joy against a bullpen that, with a 3.40 ERA ranks third in MLB this year, including lethal closer Aroldis Chapman. Boston has also been in a lot of tight games recently and has an O/U record of 2-6 in its last eight.
Take the under.
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