Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction and Picks - Sunday, September 21, 2025
Cleveland is hoping to continue its late run on the AL Central title with a win in Sunday's series finale in Minnesota. Find out more about this matchup with our Guardians vs. Twins prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm CT (2:10pm ET) at Target Field, home of the Twins.
Note: This article was published before the start of the second game of Saturday's doubleheader between the Guardians and Twins.
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Guardians keep up the pressure
The Cleveland Guardians (83-71) looked out of the running for the AL Central title just a week ago, but a brilliant run down the stretch, coupled with Detroit's own slump, has put the division back in play. After Saturday's 6-0 shutout win over Minnesota, Cleveland is now just 1.5 games back from the Tigers, having won nine straight - including a sweep against its division rivals at Comerica Park.
Jose Ramirez continued another stellar season on Saturday with his 30th home run of the year, the fourth time in his career he has reached that mark. On the mound, Cleveland got another memorable performance, this time from Slade Cecconi who pitched 7.0 scoreless innings and allowed just three Twins batters to reach while striking out eight. The Guardians are 15-4 in September and 14-1 in their last 15 games. Joey Cantillo will look to keep that run going in Sunday's matinee. The lefty is 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA overall in 2025 in 32 outings, while as a starter, he has a 4-3 W/L record and an ERA of 3.00 in 11 starts.
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Twins slump continues
The Minnesota Twins (66-88) cannot wait for this season to end. Saturday's loss in game one of the double-header leaves the team 4-14 in September and with one win in its last six. Only the Rockies have lost more games this month in all of pro baseball. The Twins are 18.5 games behind Detroit in the AL Central standings and miss the postseason for a second straight year, while 2025 will be their first losing season since 2022.
Simeon Woods Richardson will be on the mound for Minnesota in the series finale against Cleveland. The 24-year-old is 7-4 in 2025 with a 4.31 ERA, striking out 95 batters in 101.1 innings. Woods Richardson is finishing the season strong with a 2.81 ERA from three starts in September. Last time out, he threw a gem against the Yankees with a career-high 11 strikeouts, getting the win after covering 6.0 scoreless frames.
Guardians vs. Twins pick
Spread Pick for Guardians vs. Twins
- Guardians -1.5 (5 units)
Nobody can stop the red-hot Guardians right now and I can't see scuffling Minnesota getting in their way as the Twins limp toward the end of the year. Cleveland is 7-1 on the runline in its last eight games and has gone 51-28 on the runline this year as the away team. Minnesota is 28-51 on the runline playing at home in 2025. The Twins have gone 3-8 in the season series against the Guardians, and I see another comfortable win coming on Sunday.
Take the Guardians on the runline.
Over/under Pick for Guardians vs. Twins
- Under (5 units)
Cleveland's exceptional pitching has been the key in this winning run rather than dominance at the plate, and I am backing that trend to hold in another low-scoring game. Cleveland has the lowest ERA of any team in September at 2.24, while its lineup has a season OPS of .672, higher only than Pittsburgh in pro baseball this year. The Guardians have gone 1-9-1 on the over in their last 11. Minnesota is 21-26-3 on the over in division games this year. Woods Richardson should also help keep the runs down: he has a 3.05 ERA at Target Field compared to 5.89 on the road. Cantillo has not given up more than one run in any of his last five starts.
Take the under.
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