Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Monday October 12 2026

By: Eddie Kline Published 10/12/2026, 12:00 AM ET

The American League Championship Series will get started on Monday October 11, 2026. The Cleveland Guardians will invade Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 pm EST and the game will be televised on TBS. The Rays are a hefty -180 favorite and the total is set at 7. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the postseason.

Cleveland Doing More with Less

The Cleveland Guardians entered the 2026 campaign with the lowest payroll in the majors and are looking to advance to the World Series for the first time since 2016. The Guardians (85-77) won 44 of 81 road games during the regular season and won both road games in the American League Division Series. On Saturday, Jose Ramirez delivered a two-run blast in the fourth inning to lift Cleveland to a 2-0 home victory versus Chicago.

Cleveland skipper Stephen Vogt has not announced a starting pitcher for the series opener. Twenty-seven year old righty Gavin Williams (14-8 3.76 ERA) fired five plus shutout innings on Saturday and will not be available to pitch until the Guardians return home. In the division series (45 IP), the Guardians allowed just two home runs and fanned an impressive 75 batters.

Cleveland has to pitch well, because their offense finished 26th in the majors in OPS and 24th in runs scored. The Guardians hit 162 home runs in 162 regular season games, which put them near the bottom of the majors in that category. Seven players finished with double digit home run totals, but Jose Ramirez (12 HR) is still one of the most feared hitters in baseball.

Tampa Bay Comfortable at Home

The Tampa Bay Rays missed the playoffs the last two seasons, but managed to win the most games in the American League with the third lowest payroll. The Rays (98-64) tied with Milwaukee for the most home victories (55) during the regular season and won both home games during the American League Division Series. On Thursday, OF Victor Mesa Jr. broke a sixth inning tie with a two-run shot to propel Tampa Bay to a 4-3 road victory against New York.

Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has not named a starting pitcher for Game One. Thirty-one year old righty Drew Rasmussen (16-5 2.67 ERA) took the ball in the series opener of the division series and tossed seven plus no-hit innings. The Rays ranked in the middle of the majors with a 4.12 bullpen ERA and closer Bryan Baker (1.44 ERA) has been automatic.

Despite being a small market team, Tampa Bay finished eighth in the majors in OPS and averaged 4.54 runs per game. The Rays are not reliant on the long ball, but tied for second with San Diego with 164 stolen bases. All-Star 3B Junior Caminero tied for fourth in the majors with 42 home runs and electric OF Chandler Simpson swiped 46 bags.