Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction Sunday, September 7, 2025
Two teams are trying to stay relevant in the postseason race and we’re making sure you are relevant with your picks by dropping our Guardians vs. Rays predictions for Sunday’s action. Cleveland (70-70, 3rd in A.L. Central) will go with LHP Parker Messick (1-0, 2.08 ERA) as their starting pitcher in the finale. Tampa Bay (71-70, 4th in A.L. East) will roll RHP Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.74 ERA) out to get the game started with a 12:10 EST first pitch from Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Need a hot take on the MLB Season? Check out our Free MLB Picks and cash in.
(This was published prior to the conclusion of Saturday night’s games.)
Traffic ahead of Guardians
The Guardians went into Saturday with a 2-3 record on the week as they try to make some headway in a very crowded American League Wild Card race. Before game two of this series, there were 2.5 games back of the last spot but with three teams, they still need to leap over to get there. The offense averaged 5.6 runs over their five games this week, so the bats have at last been hot. Through 140 games, the team ranked dead last in the league with a .224 team average and 14th with 547 runs. Cleveland has the second-fewest home runs in the A.L., 146, and the fourth fewest strikeouts, 1,158.
On the pitching side, the team had a 4.55 ERA over the past half month, a span of 14 games. Prior to Saturday night, the staff had a 3.94 ERA, .132 WHIP and teams were hitting .246 against them. Their starters were 40-48 with a 4.17 ERA while the bullpen had 39 saves, 30 wins and a 3.60 ERA over 487 innings. Rookie Parker Messick makes his fourth Major League start on Sunday with the team having gone 1-2 when he has pitched. He suffered his shortest outing since his callup on Monday in Boston, lasting just 3.2 innings after allowing three runs, nine hits and two walks.
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Team notes
- Messick has struck out 14 batters over 17.1 innings and opponents are hitting .294 against him.
- The Guardian’s starter has not allowed a home run at the big league level.
- Jose Ramirez is 11th in the A.L. with a .285 batting average and seventh with 87 runs scored.
- Steven Kwan hit .310 over his last 10 games with 6 RBIs, 6 runs and 2 stolen bases.
- Gabriel Arias has struck out 22 times in his last 12 games, with a least 2 Ks in nine of those games.
Rays rise from the dead
After selling off many pieces at the trade deadline, the Rays have somehow found some life, winning 10 of their last 13 games prior to Saturday night. That put the team just two games back in the Wild Card hunt, with two teams ahead of them still. Their offense tallied a combined 30 runs through their first five games of the week, but Cleveland kept them to just one in the series opener on Friday night. The team scored 64 runs over their last 13 games and this season, 641 runs have crossed the plate for Tampa Bay through 142 games. They were hitting .252 as a team and they led all of baseball with 176 stolen bases. The group also had 406 walks, the third fewest in the American League, and 1,201 strikeouts, eighth overall in the league.
The seven runs allowed by Tampa pitching in Friday’s loss were the most they had yielded in 13 games. Their 2.11 ERA in that stretch was tops among American League staffs. This season, the Rays had a 3.86 team ERA, 1.21 WHIP and opponents were hitting .236 against the club. The starting rotation has compiled a 49-45 record with a 4.00 ERA while the bullpen has provided 22 wins, 32 saves and a 3.67 ERA. Drew Rasmussen will be making his 28th start of the season and Tampa Bay is 15-12 when he’s pitched. Last time out, the 30-year-old hurler allowed three home runs and lasted just five innings against Seattle but did not factor into the decision.
Team notes
- The Guardians’ starter has allowed only 28 walks over 134.2 innings.
- Lifetime, Rasmussen has faced Cleveland five times and had a 4.97 ERA.
- Josh Lowe had two hits in Friday’s loss, his sixth multi-hit effort in his last13 games.
- Junior Caminero hit safely in his first five games in September with two home runs, bringing him to 41 on the year, third most in the A.L.
- Chandler Simpson is second in the league with 39 stolen bases in 50 attempts.
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Guardians vs. Rays Picks
Spread Pick for Guardians vs. Rays
- Guardians +130 (4 units)
With a handful of series remaining, this is a biggie for both sides. After Friday’s game, Cleveland had a 3-2 advantage in the head-to-head. This isn’t the most exciting pitching matchup, but it is an interesting one. After Messick had his first tough outing in the Bigs, he became a bit more of an anomaly, though not too much. What can we expect from the rookie? His pitch count ran high his last time out, which aided in cutting his day shot. This will be his third road start, but the left has yet to yield a home run, regardless of where he is throwing and that will go a long way. Messick also faces a Rays lineup that is hitting .229 versus left-handed pitching, the second-worst mark in the American League. Rasmussen has allowed five home runs in his last two starts at home and with Cleveland’s bats coming in hot, I think they take the day in the finale.
Take the Guardians.
Over/Under Pick for Guardians vs. Rays
- Under 8 (5 units)
Through the first five games this season, these two teams averaged a combined 6.6 runs per game. The Guardians offense came in with a little wind in their sails but they were still held to two runs twice in the last week of play, so they can be held down. It was only two weeks ago where they were shutout in three straight games. They are also hitting .224 on the road this year, the worst mark of any American League team. Tampa Bay’s offense has been a nice run while the team enjoys success but they are due for a letup. The team hits just .243 in day games. Prior to Saturday, the under was 7-2-1 in the last ten games between the teams.
Take the under.
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