Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions, Friday September 5, 2025
The American League Wild Card race is set to be hotly contested this September, and on Friday we'll see another clash between two key teams in the race with our Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction.
The Cleveland Guardians (69-70) have stumbled in their last few games after building momentum, and with the tough schedule they're up against, they'll need to be at their best down the stretch to give them any hope in the post-season race.
On Friday they battle the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays (71-69), a team that are building more and more momentum by the day, with seven straight wins getting them right back in the hunt for the final Wild Card spot. Read on to see our Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction.
Expected pitching matchup: RHP Gavin Williams vs. LHP Ian Seymour.
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Can the Guardians turn recent momentum?
This has been a season of runs for the Cleveland Guardians, and while all hope seems lost after four losses in their last five games, this is still a team with enough talent to make a push over the final month of the 2025 campaign. If they are to do so, the Guardians will need to start scoring runs, with the team ranking bottom three in baseball in runs this season, and after allowing six runs a game in their last seven played away from home, they've got no strength to lean on right now.
On the mound in this one, Cleveland will hope the turnaround starts with right-hander Gavin Williams, who is on pace for a career year with a 3.26 ERA through 27 appearances, with the 26-year old striking out 143 hitters in 143.2 innings of work. Last time out for the Guardians was a tight loss to these Rays, with RBI's to Ramirez and Manzardo not enough to get the job done as Logan Allen got through a solid 5.0 innings of work as the team would end up falling 4-2.
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Can the Rays make it eight straight?
While the Tampa Bay Rays season wasn't looking good, they've now rattled off seven straight victories as they sit just two games back of the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. As a lineup, the Rays have the seventh best batting average in all of baseball, and with a team ERA sitting at 3.89 and getting better by the game, if this team continues at this pace, they may not be denied a spot in the post-season this year.
Taking the hill for Tampa Bay here will be rookie left-hander Ian Seymour, who has compiled a solid 2.97 ERA through his first 14 career outings, with a highly impressive 42 strikeouts in 33.1 innings as the 26-year old looks to establish himself as a rotation regular. Last time out for the Rays was their seventh straight win, with Ryan Pepiot's five hitless innings leading the way against Cleveland as Carson Williams drove in two with the team picking up the 4-2 victory.
Tampa Bay -137 (4 units)
While they won the first matchup of this series, the head-to-head record between these two teams in their last 10 remains 5-5, and in four meetings thus far in 2025, both teams have picked up two victories.
However, it's hard to deny how much Cleveland have struggled on both sides of the ball recently, and with the Rays winning seven in a row and six of their last seven played in Tampa Bay, expect them to keep that red-hot streak going in this one.
Under 8.5 (5 units)
One thing we do know for sure is that when these teams go to battle, there won't be many runs scored, with the under being 8-1-1 in their last 10 head-to-head encounters, with just 5.3 total runs scored per game during that stretch.
For the Guardians, the under sits at 5-5 in their last 10 overall games, with four or less runs scored in seven games during that stretch, and for the Rays, the under comes in at 5-5 in their past 10, with just 2.5 runs allowed per game during those games.
Keep it simple, take the under.
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