Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday, September 4, 2025
The Cleveland Guardians take on the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday night from George Steinbrenner Field at 7:35pmET. Cleveland sits at 69-69, which places them out of the wild card standings, but just three games behind Seattle for the third slot. The Rays are 70-69 so they are a 1/2 game up on the Guardians. Who will win this matchup? Check out our Free MLB Picks and cash in.
Cleveland salvages series against Boston
The Guardians can't afford to continue to lose series. They lost two of three at Boston, but did win the series finale 8-1 on Wednesday. That came after beating Seattle and Tampa Bay in two of three. In Wednesday's win over the Red Sox, Steven Kwan led the way with three hits and two runs scored, while SS Gabriel Arias hit his 10th home run to power the Guardians. Joey Cantillo picked up his fourth win, going six innings and allowing just one run to decrease his ERA to 3.73.
LHP Logan Allen (7-10, 4.42 ERA) will take the mound for Cleveland. He's really struggled over his last two starts, allowing 13 runs, four homers and six walks in his last 11 innings. The Guardians have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in runs per game (3.90), 30th in batting average (.224) and 29th in OPS (.663). They've been very average pitching-wise, ranking 16th in opponents' ERA (3.97).
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Tampa Bay is back in the playoff picture
This has been quite the up-and-down season for the Rays. They'll look for revenge against the Guardians, after losing 2-of-3 to them in late August. However, since a 4-3 loss at Cleveland on Aug. 27, they've now won six straight games to get them back in the playoff picture and place them 2.5 games behind the final wild card spot. In their last game, they crushed Seattle 9-4 on Wednesday to sweep the Mariners at home. Tampa Bay racked up 18 hits in the game and did not hit one home run, with just two extra-base hits. DH Yandy Diaz had a tremendous game, going 5-for-5 with a run scored and a double. Ten of those hits and eight runs came against one of the top pitchers in the American League in George Kirby.
Ryan Pepiot will start for the Rays. He's 10-10 with a 3.70 ERA with 155 strikeouts and 26 home runs allowed in a pretty uneven season. When he's on, he can be like an ace and that's what he's done over his last two starts, allowing just one hit in a 4-1 win over Washington and one hit in a 7-2 win over St. Louis. In both games, he went just five innings. He last faced Cleveland on Sept. 12, 2024, giving up two runs and four hits, but went just two innings.
Tampa Bay -144
Tampa Bay is a favorite because they've won six straight games. They also have Pepiot on the mound, who is 6-4 with a 3.25 ERA at home. He doesn't mind pitching in a minor league ballpark. Or at least, he's become accustomed to it. Allen is 3-3 on the road with a 4.97 ERA. The Rays are mediocre against lefties overall, but at home, they hit a solid .241, averaging 4.2 runs per game, while the Guards are hitting just .226 against right-handers on the road.
Over
In their last series, Cleveland allowed 18 runs in three games, including 17 in their two losses. The Rays have gone over in four straight games. Tampa Bay just scored 25 runs at home against a very good starting staff led by George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo. This is not a pitcher's park and Allen will find that out on Thursday.
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