Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 12, 2025
Use Code SSWC The MLB action continues on Friday with a divisional matchup between the Colorado Rockies (40-107) and the San Diego Padres (80-67), and we’ve got you covered with our Rockies vs. Padres prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 9:40 ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Rockies Having a Forgettable Year
The Colorado Rockies have finished either fourth or fifth in the National League West for six consecutive years, and that’s a trend that’s going to continue in 2025. Following Thursday night’s 2-0 loss to the Padres, the Rockies are now 40-107 and sitting 42.5 games out of first in the division. There were some concerns that the Rockies may break the 2024 White Sox’s all-time worst record of 41-121, but it appears that they’ll clear the threshold now. They have dropped their last six games heading into the weekend.
Offense was tough to come by for the Rockies on Thursday night, as they managed only four hits and were shutout 2-0 by the Padres. McCade Brown (4.1 IP, 2 ER) was serviceable in his start, but was ultimately saddled with the loss due to a lack of run support.
- Tanner Gordon gets the nod for the Rockies on Friday, and like the rest of Colorado’s pitching staff, it has been an ugly campaign.
- The right-hander has made 12 starts (60.0 IP), going 5-6 with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.
- Gordon just faced the Padres last Sunday, and he was lit up for six earned runs on six hits and a walk over 3.2 innings.
- He took the loss in an 8-1 defeat.
Padres in the Playoff Hunt
Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres are looking to get over the hump and make a World Series push in 2025. They haven’t been to the Fall Classic since 1998, when they were swept in four games by the Yankees. San Diego is still hanging around in the N.L. West race, but they find themselves trailing first-place Los Angeles by 2.5 games. The Padres are comfortably in the wild card, holding the middle position with a 5.5-game edge over the first teams out (Reds, Giants). From a sports betting perspective, the Friars are just +1300 to win the World Series. That’s the fourth-shortest price of N.L. teams.
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Randy Vasquez was lights out on Thursday night, tossing 6.0 scoreless innings and recording a win. Robert Suarez (1.0 IP, 0 ER) slammed the door in the 9th and logged his 37th save. Offensively, Luis Arraez drove in an RBI with a knock in the 3rd, while Jackson Merrill blasted a solo shot in the 4th to round out the 2-0 victory.
- As of this writing (Thursday night), the Padres have yet to announce a starting pitcher.
- Their pitching staff has been elite this season, ranking second in ERA (3.63) and third in WHIP (1.21).
- As for the bullpen specifically, they’re first (3.13) and first (1.17) in those respective categories.
- San Diego has converted 45 out of 61 save opportunities (73.8%).
Rockies vs. Padres Pick
Run LinePick for Rockies vs. Padres
- San Diego Padres -1.5 (-145) (5 units)
I’m going to ride with the Padres in this game, and I’m willing to lay the 1.5 runs, despite it coming with a sizable -145 price tag. San Diego has dominated the season series in 2025, going 8-2 SU against Colorado. All eight of those wins have come by multiple runs.
The Rockies are bordering on being the worst team of all time. That’s showing up statistically, as Colorado has an average margin of victory of -2.6. To put that in perspective, only one other MLB team has an AMOV worse than -0.8, and it’s the Nationals at -1.2. The Rockies are more than twice as bad as the next-closest team this season! The Padres are also running into Tanner Gordon (6.60 ERA), and they just lit him up for six earned runs last weekend in Denver. I’ll back San Diego -1.5.
Over/Under Pick for Rockies vs. Padres
- Over 8.0 (-106) (4 units)
This is a tough total to call considering the Rockies haven’t been great offensively, and they’re running into a top-tier Padres’ pitching staff. However, with a flat number of 8.0 runs, I’m willing to play the over.
Mostly, I think there’s a realistic chance that the Padres score 8+ runs by themselves and get this game over the total. In fact, they just beat Tanner Gordon and the Rockies 8-1 last weekend. In addition to Gordon’s woes, the bullpen has also been atrocious. They’re 29th in relief ERA (5.31) and 30th in opposing batting average (.277). I’m willing to play the over here for a four-unit play. At least we’ll have “push potential” to fall back on in the case of a 6-2, 7-1, or 8-0 final score. Give me the over.
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