Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 11, 2025
The MLB action continues on Thursday with a divisional matchup between the Colorado Rockies (40-106) and the San Diego Padres (79-67), and we’ve got you covered with our Rockies vs. Padres prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 9:40 ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Rockies Are Historically Bad
The expectations weren’t high for the Colorado Rockies this season, but I don’t think anyone predicted that the franchise would be on a trajectory this historically bad. The Rockies come into this series at 40-106, which puts them 42.0 games out of first place in the National League West. There were concerns that the Rockies may break the White Sox’s all-time worst record of 41-121 from last season, but they’re just two wins away from eclipsing that threshold. Colorado has dropped five consecutive contests, losing two games to San Diego (10-8, 8-1) and getting swept out of Los Angeles by the Dodgers (3-1, 7-2, 9-0).
The offense was clearly tough to come by for the Rockies on Wednesday night, as they managed only two hits and got shut out 9-0. The loss fell on Kyle Freeland, even though he tossed 5.2 innings and only gave up one earned run.
- McCade Brown gets the nod for the Rockies on Thursday, and the rookie hurler is gearing up to make his fourth career start.
- Through three outings (9.1 IP), it hasn't been pretty, as the right-hander is 0-3 with a 12.54 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP.
- Brown just faced the Padres on Saturday, and he was lit up for six earned runs on five hits and a walk over 1.2 innings.
- He took the loss in the 10-8 defeat.
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Padres On Track for a Wild Card Spot
The San Diego Padres have featured a juggernaut roster for several straight seasons, but they haven’t been able to get over the hump and make a World Series push. San Diego has navigated a tough National League West this year and they find themselves in the playoff hunt. The Padres are 3.0 games behind the first-place Dodgers in the division, and they currently occupy the second wild card spot (+3.0 GB). In terms of recent form, San Diego is coming off of a losing midweek series to Cincinnati (W: 4-3, L: 4-2, L: 2-1).
The Padres lost Wednesday’s series finale to the Reds in a 2-1 defeat. It was a rare late-inning collapse, which saw Adrian Morejon (0.2 IP, 1 ER) take the loss in relief. Offensively, the lone run came off of a solo home run from Fernando Tatis Jr., who went 2-for-4 in the losing effort.
- Randy Vasquez will oppose Brown on Thursday, and the 26-year-old starter has been serviceable in 24 outings (117.1 IP) this year.
- The right-hander comes into the series opener at just 4-6, but owns a respectable 3.91 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.
- Vasquez turned in a 6.0-inning quality start against the Rockies last time out, limiting them to three runs (two earned) on eight hits.
- It was a winning effort in the 10-8 victory.
Rockies vs. Padres Pick
Run Line Pick for Rockies vs. Padres
- San Diego Padres -1.5 (-111) (5 units)
This is the same pitching matchup that we saw in Denver last weekend, where the Padres notched a 10-8 victory over the Rockies. San Diego is now 7-2 SU against Colorado, and all seven of the victories have come by multiple runs.
The Rockies are no strangers to multi-run defeats, as their average margin of victory this season is -2.6 runs per game. To put that in perspective, only one other MLB team has an AMOV worse than -0.8, and it’s the Nationals at -1.2. Colorado is twice as bad as the next-closest team, which just affirms how ugly this season has been for them. Randy Vasquez just turned in a quality start against the Rockies (6.0 IP, 2 ER) last weekend, and if he’s anywhere near as solid in this game, then the Padres should cruise to a run line cover.
Over/Under Pick for Rockies vs. Padres
- Over 8.5 (-114) (5 units)
I have to play the over in this contest. I expect to see the Padres do a bulk of the heavy lifting to get this final score over the number. They just faced McCade Brown last weekend, and they rocked him for six runs over just 1.2 innings. Factor in that the Rockies are 29th in ERA (5.31) and 30th in opposing batting average (.277), and there’s a realistic chance that the Padres do enough damage themselves to clear the total.
On the flip side, Vasquez hasn’t been untouchable this season, as he has conceded at least two earned runs in each of his last three starts. If the Rockies can muster up just a couple of runs, then I’m even more confident that we’ll clear this number. Give me the over.
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