Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 9 2026
The Colorado Rockies will face the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, August 9, 2026, at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET, with MLB.TV providing coverage. Colorado enters the weekend at 45-71 overall and 18-39 on the road, while St. Louis is 58-58 overall and 29-32 at home. The Cardinals won Friday's series opener 3-2, while Saturday's game was not completed when this preview was written.
The Cardinals are listed as a -173 moneyline favorite, while Colorado is +138. The total is set at 9.5 runs, with the over at +100. Baseball bettors should also check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.
Starting Pitchers
Colorado will send Michael Lorenzen to the mound against St. Louis' Michael McGreevy. Lorenzen enters with a 3-10 record, 6.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP across 107.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 156 hits and 17 home runs while recording 80 strikeouts against 43 walks. McGreevy is 4-9 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through 120.1 innings. The Cardinals right-hander has surrendered 114 hits and 16 home runs while striking out 81 and walking 30.
Colorado Needs Its Offense to Overcome the Pitching
The Rockies enter Sunday's matchup at 45-71 overall and 18-39 on the road. Colorado has lost four consecutive games and four of its last five completed contests. The Rockies fell 3-2 to St. Louis Friday after being swept in three games by Tampa Bay, losing 4-0, 9-7 in 11 innings and 13-9. Colorado's only victory during the five-game stretch was an 8-1 win over Kansas City.
Colorado is batting .255 this season with 556 runs, 1,008 hits and 130 home runs. The Rockies have a .323 on-base percentage and .420 slugging percentage. Their pitching has been a much bigger problem, with the staff carrying a 5.49 ERA and 1.51 WHIP while opponents are batting .288. Colorado pitchers have recorded 807 strikeouts while issuing 373 walks.
The unusual part of this matchup is that Colorado owns the better offensive statistics despite having the much worse overall record. The Rockies lead St. Louis in batting average, runs, hits, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Unfortunately for Colorado, those offensive advantages have regularly been erased by its pitching. That becomes an even greater concern Sunday with Lorenzen carrying some of the weakest starting numbers in this matchup.
St. Louis Has a Major Advantage on the Mound
The Cardinals enter Sunday's series finale at 58-58 overall with a 29-32 record at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has won four of its last five completed games, including Friday's 3-2 victory over Colorado. The Cardinals previously defeated the Yankees 3-1, lost 2-0 in the middle game of that series and won the opener 13-7. St. Louis began its current five-game stretch with a 5-1 victory at Toronto.
St. Louis is batting .239 with 502 runs, 928 hits and 119 home runs this season. The Cardinals own a .315 on-base percentage and .378 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been considerably better than Colorado's, posting a 4.10 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while opponents are batting .253. St. Louis pitchers have recorded 890 strikeouts against 390 walks.
The Cardinals don't have Colorado's offensive numbers, but they enter Sunday with the much stronger pitching situation. McGreevy's 3.59 ERA is more than three runs lower than Lorenzen's 6.94 mark, while his 1.20 WHIP is dramatically better than Lorenzen's 1.85. St. Louis has also been playing the better baseball recently, and Colorado's 18-39 road record makes the Rockies particularly difficult to trust away from home.
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction
- Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -173
The St. Louis Cardinals are the pick to win Sunday's game at -173.
Colorado has the stronger offensive statistics, so there is some risk involved in laying this price with St. Louis. However, the starting pitching difference is simply too large to ignore.
Lorenzen has struggled throughout the season with a 6.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. He has allowed 156 hits in only 107.2 innings, meaning St. Louis should have plenty of opportunities to put runners on base. McGreevy, meanwhile, enters with a 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and has allowed only 114 hits through 120.1 innings.
The situational numbers also favor St. Louis. Colorado is just 18-39 away from home and has lost four straight, while the Cardinals have won four of their last five. ESPN Analytics gives St. Louis a 67.1% chance of winning, and the pitching matchup provides the strongest reason to back the Cardinals.
Take the St. Louis Cardinals -173.
- Pick: Over 9.5
The over 9.5 at +100 is the preferred total.
Lorenzen is the biggest reason to look toward a higher-scoring game. His 6.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP indicate consistent problems preventing baserunners, and opponents have collected 156 hits against him in 107.2 innings. St. Louis should have opportunities to score even though its season offensive numbers are relatively modest.
Colorado can also contribute. The Rockies are batting .255 with a .420 slugging percentage and have scored 54 more runs than St. Louis this season. McGreevy has been solid, but Colorado's offensive profile is strong enough to prevent this from being entirely dependent on the Cardinals.
The Rockies have also been involved in several high-scoring games recently, including totals of 16 and 22 runs against Tampa Bay. With Colorado's season pitching problems and Lorenzen's individual numbers, 10 combined runs is attainable.
Take Over 9.5 at +100.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals 7, Colorado Rockies 4
This preview was written prior to game play on Saturday.