Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Picks for Friday, September 26th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The final weekend of the MLB regular season is upon us, and we have a pivotal matchup on Friday night between the Detroit Tigers (86-73) and the Boston Red Sox (87-72). We’ve got you covered with our Tigers vs. Red Sox prediction. Below I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:10 ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Tigers Battling For the Playoffs
The Detroit Tigers are in the midst of an epic collapse. On July 8th, the Tigers held a 15.5-game edge over the Guardians in the American League Central. They’ve seen that lead wither away over the last 2+ months and are now tied with Cleveland for the divisional lead. Both teams sit at 86-73 entering the weekend. The Tigers were recently riding an eight-game losing streak, but they snapped it with a win over the Guardians (4-2) on Thursday night. Cleveland also holds the tiebreaker for the divisional race, so Detroit is currently in the final wild card spot with a 1.0-game cushion over the Astros (85-74).
Thursday’s 4-2 victory over the Guardians saw the Tigers jump out to an early lead thanks to a lead-off home run from Jahmai Jones. He went 1-for-3, while Wenceel Perez and Riley Greene also went 1-for-3 with solo home runs. Brant Hurter (1.1 IP, 0 ER) earned the win in relief, while Will Vest (1.0 IP, 0 ER) logged his 22nd save to close out the game.
- Casey Mize gets the nod on Friday night, and the 28-year-old has been serviceable for the Tigers in 27 starts (142.2 IP) this season.
- The right-hander enters the weekend at 14-6 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.
- Mize last pitched on Sunday against the Braves, where he gave up three earned runs on five hits and three walks over 5.2 innings.
- He took the loss in a 6-2 defeat.
Red Sox Should Make the Postseason
Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox had high expectations entering the 2025 season, and they’ve lived up to the hype and are now competing for a playoff spot. Heading into Friday’s game, the Red Sox, who are 87-72, have a magic number of 1. They just have to win once this weekend to secure a playoff berth in the wild card. The Red Sox have been playing quality baseball recently, going 4-2 in their last six games. They’re coming off of a series win on the road against the Blue Jays (W: 4-1, W: 7-1, L: 6-1) during their midweek series.
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Thursday’s 6-1 defeat to the Jays fell on Brayan Bello in the starter’s role. He allowed three runs (two earned) over 5.0 innings. Offense was tough to come by, as the Red Sox managed only one run on four hits. Trevor Story drove in the lone run with an RBI single in the top of the 7th.
- Kyle Harrison will oppose Mize on Friday, and the 24-year-old is gearing up to make his third appearance with his new club after coming over in the Rafael Devers trade earlier in the year.
- The left-hander has been lights out in 9.0 innings with Boston, going 0-0 with a 1.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
- Most recently, Harrison started against the Rays and limited them to only one earned run on four hits and two walks over 6.0 innings.
- He took a no-decision in a game that the Red Sox eventually won 6-3.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Pick
Moneyline Pick for Tigers vs. Red Sox
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-118) (5 units)
I am surprised that the Red Sox are as low as -118 moneyline favorites in this contest. They still need to secure a victory to clinch a playoff berth, and I’m willing to wager that they wrap it up on Friday night.
Boston has been excellent at home this season, going 46-32 SU at Fenway. They’ll take on a Detroit squad that’s just 1-8 SU in its last nine games, while going 2-11 SU in their last 13 contests. Additionally, the Tigers will send Casey Mize to the bump. The right-hander has posted a mediocre 4.24 ERA in his last three outings (17.0 IP). Boston’s offense is also slashing .303/.351/.636 against Mize in the head-to-head category over 33 at-bats. With the home-field advantage, edge in starting pitching, and better overall form, this feels like a no-brainer to ride with Boston.
Over/Under Pick for Tigers vs. Red Sox
- Under 9.0 (-115) (5 units)
While I’m not overly optimistic regarding Casey Mize, I still think we’ll see this final score stay under this elevated number of 9.0 runs.
Mostly, I’m concerned with where the scoring will come from for the Tigers. Over the last 14 days, Detroit is 28th in wOBA (.258) and 23rd in ISO (.117). They have the third-highest K% (28.2%) during the two weeks. Additionally, they’re tasked with trying to score on Kyle Harrison, who has posted a 1.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in two appearances (9.0 IP) with the Red Sox. Boston’s bullpen is also third in ERA (3.49) and fifth in opposing batting average (.231), so I ultimately think it’ll be Detroit’s offense hindering this final score from clearing 9+ runs. Give me the under.
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