Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Picks and Prediction -Tuesday, September 23, 2025
All eyes are on the American League Central and the biggest series of the final week in the MLB regular season, but make sure you put your eyes on our Tigers vs. Guardians predictions first. Detroit (85-71, 1st in A.L. Central) will have ace LHP Tarik Skubal (13-5, 2.23 ERA) as their starting pitcher in the series opener. Cleveland (84-72, 2nd in A.L. Central) counters with RHP Gavin Williams (11-5, 3.06 ERA). The first pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 EST and with other big games on the schedule, it’s in your best interest to check out our Free MLB Picks before making your plays.
Tigers nearing epic collapse
As of July 8th, the Tigers owned a 15.5-game lead over then-fourth-place Cleveland. They’ve been swept in each of their last two series and now only lead their opponent by one game with six to play. In the midst of their six-game losing streak, the offense .214 and scored just 14 runs. They rank seventh in the league with a .248 team average this season and their 743 runs are fourth most in the American League. Riley Greene is hitting just .188 over 18 games in September. The team leader with 34 home runs and 109 RBIs, he’s had just two diners and eight RBIs this month. After coming into the month with a .235 average on the year, Spencer Torkelson has hit .294 in September.
Tigers’ pitching has also struggled, allowing six runs or more in seven of their last ten games. They have a 5.73 ERA in their losing streak with a 1.60 WHIP. Coming into this series, the Detroit staff had a 3.98 team ERA, ninth in the American League. They have a 1.25 WHIP, 1,318 strikeouts and opponents are hitting .242 against them. The starting rotation has a 54-46 record with a 3.92 ERA while the bullpen has added 31 wins with 38 saves and a 4.12 ERA.
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Starter spotlight
- This is Tarik Skubal’s 31st start of the season and likely his last, depending on how this week plays out for Detroit.
- He did not earn a decision last time out after allowing a run, seven hits and walks while striking out nine over six innings against the Guardians.
- Is second in MLB with 233 strikeouts and a 2.23 ERA.
- The lefty has allowed 18 home runs, and 30 walks and opponents are hitting .200 against him.
- Skubal is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 11 career starts against the Guardians.
Win streak ends for steadfast Guardians
The Guardians’ frantic, ten-game winning streak came to an end in a 6-2 loss at Minnesota on Sunday, but it’s brought the team all the way to the brink of a postseason berth. With a 15-2 record over their last 17 games, they’ve moved a game back of Detroit for the Central while also tying Houston for the third Wild Card spot. Pitching has been excellent, posting five shutouts in the last 17 games. The staff ranks second in the American League with a 3.71 ERA. They’ve struck out 1,313 batters, have a 1.27 WHIP and teams are hitting .240 against them. Guardians’ starters are 49-48 with a 3.82 ERA and relievers have provided 46 saves, 35 wins and a 3.52 ERA.
Over the past half-month, the Cleveland offense hit .247 and scored 64 runs in 14 games. Their .226 team batting average is tied with the Angels for the worst mark in the American League. They are also tied with the fewest runs in the league with 616. Following a .219 August, Jose Ramirez is hitting .278 in September with 11 extra-base hits, 13 RBIs and 16 runs. The third baseman is third in the A.L. with 40 stolen bases and is fifth with 100 runs. Steven Kwan hit safely in four straight games and has reached base in 18 of 21 games in September.
Starter spotlight
- Gavin Williams makes his 31st start of the season and the Guardians are 16-14 when he starts.
- He didn’t allow a run and struck out nine batters over five innings at Detroit last Wednesday.
- His 3.06 ERA ranks eighth in the American League.
- Teams are hitting .212 against the Guardians’ hurler who has allowed 22 home runs and 81 walks.
- Williams is 2-2 with a 1.67 ERA in six career starts against Detroit.
Tigers vs. Guardians Picks
Spread Pick for Tigers vs. Guardians
- Guardians +138 (5 units)
This series, at this point in the season, is what makes baseball so great, and this game is a massive one for both sides. We have as good a pitching matchup as we are going to get, and though Cleveland’s momentum was finally halted, Detroit continues to slip. Will they be able to get back in the win column with their ace on the hill? In three starts versus Cleveland this season, Skubal has a 0.41 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 22 innings. Those numbers are phenomenal, but is the fourth time a charm for Cleveland hitters, who now know the lefty very well? It also won’t help the Tigers’ cause that they are facing Williams, who has owned them this season, going 1-0, with 17Ks in 11 scoreless innings. Detroit has just four hits and five walks against the Cleveland starter. Following last week’s sweep in Detroit, I expect Cleveland to be brimming with confidence coming into this game. They are 6-4 in the season series and if they win here, things just get that much tighter.
Take the Guardians.
Over/Under Pick for Tigers vs. Guardians
- Under 6.5 (5 units)
This is about as low as a total gets and with really good reason, given the pitching matchup at hand. Even before we get to that, we have to note that this is going to be a full-on playoff atmosphere, so both sides are going to be a little tense with massive consequences in play. Detroit’s offense scored two runs or fewer in four of its last five efforts and Cleveland put up three runs or less in seven of their last 13 games. Now, on to the starters; Skubal is on the verge of his second straight A.L. Cy Young Award and a big effort here cements that. The left-hander pitches big in big games and he’s allowed one earned run or less in five of his last six starts. Williams has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts and has not allowed any runs against the Guardians this season. The under is 7-3 this season when these two meet.
Take the under.
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