Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees - Prediction and Picks - Thursday, September 11
Detroit finishes up its three-game series in the Bronx on Thursday against the Yankees looking for a sweep, while the home team is hoping to regroup after two big losses. Find out more about this matchup with our Tigers vs. Yankees prediction and picks. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm ET at Yankee Stadium.
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Tigers cruising to postseason
Aside from a brief spurt in early August from the Guardians, the AL Central title has always looked likely to go to the Detroit Tigers (84-62) in 2025. With fewer than 20 games left on the regular season schedule, Detroit leads Cleveland by 9.5 games and is challenging Toronto for the honor of finishing with the best record in the AL. Save for a dramatic late collapse, the Tigers will get one of the league's two byes into the Division Series this October. Detroit's offense has exploded in this series at Yankee Stadium as the team's batters have combined for a total of 23 runs and 25 hits in two games to blow out the Yankees in both.
For Thursday's series finale the Tigers are yet to confirm who will start on the mound. Tarik Skubal is available on regular rest, but Detroit prefers to skip his start, perhaps to maintain the surprise factor ahead of a potential playoff bout with the Yankees down the line (the left-hander last pitched against them in April). A bullpen game is therefore an option for Detroit, with Chris Paddack an option to cover multiple innings. The July trade acquisition from the Twins was moved into the bullpen this month but needed just 35 pitches to throw 3.0 innings in Tuesday's 12-2 blowout, getting credited with the save. Detroit relievers have pitched to a 3.99 ERA in 2025, ranking 13th in MLB.
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Yankees prepare for final division push
The Yankees (80-65) are still in with a chance of taking the AL East, but time is running out. After two blowout losses to Detroit, the Bronx Bombers trail Toronto by 3.0 games at the top of the division, having taken a huge series off the Blue Jays at the weekend. The Yankees continue to occupy the AL's first wildcard spot, which would give them home advantage for the three-game series at the beginning of the postseason. Wednesday's 11-1 defeat means that the Yankees have dropped their first series since getting swept by the Red Sox on August 23.
Cam Schlittler will get his 11th start of the season this Thursday against the Tigers. The rookie made his MLB debut back in July and has gone 2-3 with a 3.24 ERA so far in the bigs. Schlittler had recorded three straight quality starts before getting rocked in his last outing against the Blue Jays, giving up five runs (four earned) in 1.2 innings to take the L. Now, he will try to regain the form he showed across August, in which he put up a 1.60 ERA in six starts while striking out 39 batters in 33.2 innings.
Tigers vs. Yankees pick
Spread Pick for Tigers vs. Yankees
- Yankees ML (4 units)
The Tigers' pitching uncertainty gives the Yankees a definite edge for Thursday's finale. Were Skubal on the mound, it could well be a different story; but despite his last rocky start, Schlittler has shown enough in his rookie year to suggest he can deliver the win for the home team in a potential bullpen game on the other side. The Yankees have been strong at home, going 43-31 in 2025 in front of their own fans. They also offer more at the plate than Thursday's rival, leading MLB with an OPS of .782 compared to Detroit's .740 (11th in majors).
Take the Yankees on the moneyline.
Over/under Pick for Tigers vs. Yankees
- Over (5 units)
With a variety of Tigers likely to come up on the mound and bearing in mind Schlittler's struggles against a strong lineup last time out, there is a good chance this will be another high-scoring game that blows past the over. Though they haven't shown it so far in the Yankees are certainly capable of putting up big numbers in the Bronx. Prior to Wednesday's game, they averaged 5.56 runs per game at home this year, by some distance the best record in MLB, while hitting 25 more homers in front of their own fans (125) than nearest challengers the Dodgers and Mets. The Tigers are 39-31-1 on the over playing on the road this year.
Take the under.
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