Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Picks - Wednesday, September 24, 2025
The MLB season is winding down, and the AL Central race is heating up with a pivotal matchup between the Detroit Tigers (85-72, 39-37 away) and the Cleveland Guardians (85-72, 42-34 home) on September 24, 2025; look inside for our prediction and picks. The game will take place at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, with the first pitch scheduled for 5:40 PM ET. The weather is expected to be mild, around 71°F. Both teams are tied atop the AL Central standings, making this game crucial for playoff positioning. Detroit will send Jack Flaherty (8-14, 4.60 ERA) to the mound, while Cleveland counters with Tanner Bibee (11-11, 4.34 ERA). The Tigers are on a seven-game losing streak, including a 5-2 loss to Cleveland on September 23, while the Guardians snapped a brief skid with that victory and have won four of their last five games.
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Tigers Losing Streak Threatens Playoff Push
The Detroit Tigers are in the midst of a late-season collapse, losing seven straight games and watching their AL Central lead evaporate. Their most recent loss, a 5-2 defeat to Cleveland, highlighted their offensive struggles, as they managed just six hits and two runs. Over their last five games, Detroit has been outscored 32-12, with their pitching staff faltering and their offense unable to provide much support. Riley Greene remains the team’s offensive leader, hitting .261 with 35 home runs and 110 RBIs, but the rest of the lineup has struggled to produce consistently.
Injuries have also taken a toll on Detroit, with key players like Matt Vierling (10-day IL), Colt Keith (10-day IL), and Sawyer Gipson-Long (15-day IL) unavailable. Javier Báez is listed as day-to-day, further complicating their lineup. Jack Flaherty, the Tigers’ probable starter, has had an inconsistent season, posting an 8-14 record with a 4.60 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 156.2 innings. While Flaherty has shown flashes of brilliance, his 22 home runs allowed and 59 walks have been costly. As a team, Detroit is hitting .248 with a .317 OBP and .417 SLG, while their pitching staff has a 3.98 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Despite these respectable numbers, their recent form has been concerning.
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Guardians Surge to AL Central Lead
The Cleveland Guardians have surged back into contention, winning four of their last five games and tying Detroit for the division lead. Their 5-2 victory over the Tigers on September 23 showcased their balanced attack, with Jose Ramirez leading the way offensively. Ramirez has been the team’s most consistent hitter, slashing .282/.359/.503 with 30 home runs and 82 RBIs. Cleveland’s offense, while not as powerful as Detroit’s, has been effective in key moments, with a team batting average of .226 and 163 home runs on the season.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland’s probable starter, has been a steady presence in their rotation. Bibee has an 11-11 record with a 4.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 176.1 innings. He has struck out 157 batters while issuing just 52 walks, showcasing his ability to limit damage. Cleveland’s pitching staff has been a strength all season, with a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The Guardians have also been relatively healthy, with only a few key players like John Means (60-day IL) and Lane Thomas (10-day IL) currently sidelined.
Guardians vs. Tigers Pick
Spread Pick for Guardians vs. Tigers
- Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (5 Units)
The Tigers have struggled against the run line, covering in just 42.7% of their away games this season. They are also 0-7 in their last seven games against the spread, reflecting their recent struggles. On the other hand, the Guardians have been strong against the run line, covering in 64.1% of their home games and 60.9% of their division matchups. Cleveland has also been dominant as a home favorite, covering the run line in 55.2% of those games. Given these trends, Cleveland appears to have the edge in this matchup. Take the Guardians to cover the run line, as their recent form and home-field advantage make them the more reliable choice. Go with Cleveland!
Over/Under Pick for Guardians vs. Tigers
- Under 7.5 (5 units)
When it comes to total points, the Tigers have hit the over in 55.4% of their games this season, including 60.6% after a loss. However, the Guardians have gone under the total in 54.2% of their games, particularly in division matchups, where they’ve hit the under in 61.4% of contests. Recent games between these two teams have also leaned toward lower-scoring affairs, with three of their last four matchups going under the projected total of 7.5 runs. Based on these trends, take the under on total points, as both teams have shown a tendency to play tight, low-scoring games in recent weeks. Go UNDER and Good Luck!
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