Houston Astros vs. Athletics Prediction and Picks – Thursday, September 25, 2025
The Houston Astros will host the Athletics for their 13th and final meeting of the 2025 MLB season, and we'll preview the lines and odds in our Astros vs. Athletics prediction. This will be the third game of the current three-game series in Houston; both of the first two games went to the Athletics, who've now won seven straight against the Astros this season. Game time is set for 3:35 PM ET on Thursday, September 25.
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Can the Astros reclaim a playoff spot?
The Houston Astros, after losing their each of their last five games to fall to 84-74, suddenly find themselves a game behind the Detroit Tigers for the last AL wildcard berth with only four games left to play. They're too far back of the 89-69 Mariners to take the division, and they're three games behind the 87-71 Boston Red Sox for the other wildcard berth. Houston isn't eliminated with an eighth-straight loss to the Athletics on Thursday, but the ice has thinned quickly for a team that's made the playoffs each of the last nine seasons.
Wednesday's 0-6 loss to the Athletics marked the first time Houston was shut out against their division rival this season, despite facing a starting pitcher in Luis Severino (8-11) who entered the game with a 4.72 overall ERA and a 6.51 ERA in home games. The Astros only logged five hits and six total batters on base all game, while Hunter Brown pitched five innings and allowed four earned runs to the A's.
Framber Valdez will look to put up a better performance when he gets the start on Thursday afternoon. He's 12-11 this season with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, but his performance fell off dramatically between August and September. He's 1-7 since the calendar turned to August, and he has an 8.27 ERA across four games in September.
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Will A's make it eight straight against Astros?
The Athletics are no longer in the playoff race at 75-83, but you wouldn't think it from how they've performed against the Astros during this home stand – or across their last several games against the Astros overall. Their 6-0 win on Wednesday extended their win streak against Houston to seven, during which they've outscored the Astros 49-12. Each game was decided by multiple runs; the Athletics scored five or more runs in all seven games, while the Astros haven't scored more than four in any of them. Cut the streak to the four most recent meetings, and the Athletics have outscored the Astros by an overwhelming 23-3.
Across their last two meetings with the Astros, the Athletics have notched 17 hits and put 23 total batters on base. Tyler Soderstrom is responsible for four of those hits, one of which went for a 395-foot home run in the bottom of the 7th on Wednesday. On the other side, the A's pitchers allowed only eight hits and 12 total batters on base across the last two games.
The A's have positively regressed from being one of the worst pitching teams in the league – they're now only 27th in ERA (4.69), 24th in batting average allowed (.252), and 25th in WHIP (1.36) for the season. Their offense – which ranks 12th in runs (714), 5th in batting average (.253), and 7th in OPS (.750) – was never what held them back from winning.
J.T. Ginn will start for the A's on Thursday. He enters the game with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP; the team has won five of his last six starts.
Astros vs. Athletics Pick
Spread Pick for Astros vs. Athletics
- Athletics +1.5 (-154) (5 Units)
The Athletics have dominated their recent matchups with the Astros, including a 7-1 win when Ginn started against toward the end of July. The Astros couldn't hit consistently, let alone get across the plate, on Tuesday or Wednesday. The Astros' slide in the playoff race should be a cause for rising urgency on the team, but that urgency would've been just as valid in the past two games, where the team scored one total run. I don't think sliding further will help the team will themselves into five or six extra runs against an Athletics squad that's effectively clamped them down with multiple pitchers.
Over/Under Pick for Astros vs. Athletics
- Under 9.0 (-110) (4 Units)
The Team Total Under is 6-1-1 in the A's last eight games and 5-1 in their last six meetings with the Astros. Aside from the 15-3 beatdown that the A's put on the Astros in July, the last six games between these two teams have ended in low-scoring Athletics wins. The over isn't likely to hit if the Astros can't figure out where they put their offense. I wouldn't bet on them finding it before their next series against the Angels to close the season.
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