Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves Picks and Predictions, Sunday September 14, 2025
The 2025 MLB season has been full of intriguing matchups, and while only one of these teams has postseason desires, this should still be a fun one with our Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves prediction.
The Houston Astros (81-68) have fought through some injuries and inconsistency this season, as they now find themselves primed to make yet another playoff run in the American League.
On Sunday, they finish a series with the Atlanta Braves (65-83), a team that has failed to perform in a big way in 2025, but with some superstars up and down this roster, they're still a team that can't be taken lightly. Read on to see our Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves prediction.
Expected pitching matchup: LHP Framber Valdez vs. LHP Joey Wentz.
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Can the Astros build momentum ahead of their playoff push?
The Houston Astros have been one of baseball's most consistent franchises for the last decade, and with the team posting an impressive 38-36 record away from home this season, they've got a tight 0.5 game lead in the American League West. Despite holding a lead in the division, the Astros rank 23rd in all of baseball in runs scored, but with a team ERA of 3.84 ranking them top-10 in the league, they continue to find ways to win down the stretch.
Taking the mound for Houston here will be veteran lefty Framber Valdez, who has posted a solid 3.42 ERA over 28 starts this season, with the 31-year old's consistency shining through again as he's struck out 171 hitters in 176.1 innings of work. Last time out for the Astros was a big win over these Braves, with Jeremy Pena and Christian Walker both knocking in two runs on the night as they got 6.2 innings of one-run ball from Hunter Brown to lead them to the 6-2 victory.
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Can the Braves avoid the sweep in this weekend series?
The Atlanta Braves have been a powerhouse in the National League for the past few seasons, but in 2025, the injuries and lack of depth have gotten to them, as the team are just 35-39 at home as they sit in fourth place in the NL East. On the mound, the Braves have struggled to recapture their form of recent years, with their 4.45 team ERA ranking them 23rd in the league, and with their once potent offense now ranking 18th in baseball, it's easy to see why they've struggled so much in 2025.
Atlanta will turn to 27-year old lefty Joey Wentz in this one, who has struggled to a 4.76 ERA in 11 appearances since arriving in Atlanta this season, as he has given up a total of 48 hits in just 51.0 innings of work thus far in 2025 with the Braves. Last time out for the Braves was a tough loss to these Astros, with the team managing just six hits on the night as Bryce Elder allowed six runs over 4.2 innings of work as they were beaten by Houston 6-2 in this one.
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves pick
- Houston -140 (5 units)
On paper, this is a matchup that the Houston Astros should be dominating, as they hold a 6-4 record in their last 10 head-to-head meetings dating back to the 2022 campaign, with Houston winning the first two games of this series.
In that time, the Astros are also 6-1 in games played in Atlanta, and with the team winning both of Framber Valdez's starts in that time, expect them to continue on and pick up the late-season sweep with this matchup.
Over/Under pick for Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
- Under 9.5 (4 units)
This series has featured two very different matchup, and over their last 10 head-to-head encounters, it's been much of the same with the under being 5-5 in that time, with a combined 22 runs scored through two games of this series.
For the Astros, the under sits at 6-4 in their last 10 overall games, with four or less runs allowed in seven of their last eight games, and for the Braves, the under comes in at 7-3 in their past 10, with less than three runs scored per game during that stretch.
Keep it simple, take the under.
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