Houston Astros vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Friday August 28 2026

The Houston Astros travel to Citi Field in Queens, New York, to face the New York Mets on Friday, August 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with coverage on MLB.TV. Houston enters at 66-67 overall and 33-32 on the road, while New York is 60-73 overall and 31-36 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing any wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Houston is expected to start Hunter Brown, who enters at 3-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 74.1 innings. He has allowed 56 hits while striking out 76 and walking 43. New York is expected to counter with Christian Scott, who is 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through 89.1 innings. He has allowed 79 hits with 111 strikeouts and 39 walks. The starting matchup is fairly close, with Houston holding a slight ERA edge while New York brings the stronger strikeout total.

Astros Trying to Regain Control of the AL West

Houston comes into Friday at 66-67 after losing 9-3 to the Yankees on Wednesday. The Astros are 2-3 over their last five games, with their victories coming in a 9-7 win over New York and a 4-0 shutout of the Athletics.

Houston is batting .242 as a team with 608 runs, 1,084 hits and 177 home runs. The Astros own a .317 on-base percentage and .411 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been less consistent, carrying a 4.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, while opponents are batting .241.

The biggest strength is still the offense. Houston has scored more runs, hit more home runs and posted the better slugging percentage than New York. With the AL West race still tightly packed, the Astros also have little margin for error as they try to stay on top of the division.

Mets Need More Reliable Run Production

New York enters Friday at 60-73 after an 8-1 loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday. The Mets are 2-3 over their last five games, but their offense has been held to three runs or fewer in three of those contests.

The Mets are batting .237 with 550 runs, 1,060 hits and 163 home runs. They own a .307 on-base percentage and .391 slugging percentage. New York's pitching staff has posted a 4.08 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, while opposing hitters are batting .238.

The biggest concern is overall offensive production. The Mets trail Houston in batting average, runs, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Their pitching has been better on the season, but they may need another strong effort on the mound to offset the gap between the two offenses.

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline

Houston is the side pick. The projected starting matchup is close enough that the larger offensive profile becomes the deciding factor. The Astros have scored 58 more runs, hit 14 more home runs and carry the stronger on-base and slugging numbers. New York's season-long pitching numbers are better, but its offense has been too inconsistent to trust against a Houston team still fighting for position in a wide-open division race. Take the Houston Astros moneyline.

Pick: Over 8.5

The total isn't available at the time of writing, but take the Over if the number is set at 8.5. Both projected starters carry WHIPs above 1.30, and Houston's pitching staff owns a 4.68 ERA. The Astros have also been involved in several higher-scoring recent games, including 9-7 and 9-3 finals. New York is less explosive offensively, but Houston's vulnerable run-prevention numbers create enough opportunity for both sides to contribute.

This preview was completed before game play on Thursday. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.