Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Thursday, August 27, 2026

The Houston Astros visit the New York Yankees on Thursday at Yankee Stadium, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 PM ET. Houston enters at 66-66 and leads the AL West by half a game over Texas. The Astros are 4-6 over their last 10 and opened this series with a 9-7 victory Tuesday. New York is 74-57, second in the AL East, 3.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and currently holds the top American League Wild Card position. The Yankees are 6-4 over their last 10 and have won three of their last five. Cash in on a big winner with our free MLB picks.

Houston Astros Look to Stay on Top in AL West

Houston’s offense has produced 605 runs this season while batting .243 with a .318 on-base percentage and .412 slugging percentage. The Astros rank 17th in MLB in batting average and have hit 176 home runs. Houston showed its scoring potential in Tuesday’s opener, collecting nine runs after scoring only 16 times over its previous four games. The Astros are 33-31 away from home and 45-43 in night games.

Yordan Alvarez continues to lead the lineup with outstanding numbers. Alvarez is batting .323 with 36 home runs, 91 RBI, 88 runs and a 1.055 OPS. Christian Walker has added 23 homers and 72 RBI, while Isaac Paredes has 17 home runs and 72 RBI. Jeremy Pena is batting .286 with 15 homers despite playing only 82 games. Houston’s biggest weakness has been pitching, where its 4.65 ERA ranks 25th in MLB. The Astros also own a 1.37 WHIP and have allowed 175 home runs.

Injuries: Mike Burrows (15-Day IL), Brice Matthews (60-Day IL), Carlos Correa (60-Day IL), Brandon Walter (60-Day IL).

New York Yankees Aim to Answer at Home

New York has won three of its last five games, beating Baltimore 6-1 and taking two of three from Toronto before losing Tuesday’s series opener. The Yankees are 33-29 at Yankee Stadium and have outscored opponents 586-488 this season for a plus-98 run differential. New York is batting .230 with a .310 on-base percentage and .408 slugging percentage, but its 181 home runs rank ahead of Houston’s 176.

Ben Rice has supplied much of New York’s power with 34 home runs, 82 RBI and an .868 OPS. Cody Bellinger leads the Yankees with a .258 batting average and has added 12 homers and 56 RBI. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has 18 home runs, 52 RBI and 35 stolen bases. New York’s strongest numbers come from the mound. The Yankees rank first in MLB with a 3.24 ERA while posting a 1.18 WHIP and holding opponents to a .225 batting average.

Injuries: Kervin Castro (15-Day IL), Max Fried (15-Day IL), Ryan McMahon (10-Day IL), Clarke Schmidt (60-Day IL), Aaron Judge (60-Day IL).

Pitching Matchup

Houston Astros – Hayden Wesneski

Wesneski is 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 27.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 24 hits, 10 walks, and two home runs while striking out 22. Wesneski has limited opponents to fewer hits than innings pitched, but his 10 walks have increased his baserunner total during a relatively small workload. He has surrendered only two home runs through his first 27.2 innings.

New York Yankees – Gerrit Cole

Cole is 7-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 92.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 79 hits, 20 walks, and 12 home runs while recording 100 strikeouts. Cole has allowed considerably fewer hits than innings pitched and has five times as many strikeouts as walks. His 1.07 WHIP is also better than New York’s already strong 1.18 team mark through a much larger workload than Wesneski.

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Game Pick

• New York Yankees

New York has the stronger pitching setup for Thursday’s series finale. Cole owns a 3.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 92.2 innings, while Wesneski enters with a 4.23 ERA through only 27.2 innings. The larger difference comes from the staffs, with New York ranking first in MLB with a 3.24 ERA compared with Houston’s 25th-ranked 4.65 mark. The Yankees are also 33-29 at home with a plus-98 run differential. Those advantages make New York the pick at Yankee Stadium.

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Over/Under Pick

• Under

Thursday’s pitching matchup makes the under the preferred total direction. Cole has posted a 3.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while recording 100 strikeouts in 92.2 innings, and New York owns MLB’s best team ERA at 3.24. The Yankees have allowed three runs or fewer in three of their last five games. Wesneski has also surrendered only two home runs in 27.2 innings. Houston scored nine Tuesday, but facing Cole and New York’s strong pitching staff creates a much different scoring setup for the series finale. Take the under Thursday.