Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 10, 2026

The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday at Citizens Bank Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 1:05 PM ET and the game televised on MLB.TV. Houston is 74-71, leads the AL West by two games over Texas and is 37-33 on the road. Philadelphia is 81-64, sits second in the NL East, four games behind Atlanta, and holds a 40-33 home record. The Astros have won three of their last five, including Tuesday’s 6-5 victory in Philadelphia, while the Phillies have split their last five. Build your bankroll with our free MLB picks.

Houston Astros Finding More Runs Away From Home

Houston has scored 15 runs over its last three victories, with a 6-5 win against Philadelphia following wins of 3-1 and 6-2. The Astros are batting .240 with a .315 on-base percentage and .408 slugging percentage while hitting 190 home runs. Yordan Alvarez leads the offense with a .311 average, 38 home runs and 95 RBI. Alvarez also owns a .428 on-base percentage and .593 slugging percentage. Christian Walker has added 25 homers and 80 RBI, while Isaac Paredes has 18 homers and 79 RBI.

Jeremy Pena has been another productive hitter, batting .270 with 17 home runs, 47 RBI and nine stolen bases. Houston's larger concern has been pitching, with the staff recording a 4.51 ERA and 1.35 WHIP while allowing 183 home runs. The Astros have surrendered at least four runs in three of their last five games. Houston has still managed a winning record during the day at 23-25 and remains in front of a tight AL West race with Texas only two games back.

Injuries: Brice Matthews, Mike Burrows, Carlos Correa and Brandon Walter are on the 60-day IL. Steven Okert is on the 15-day IL.

Philadelphia Phillies Trying to Respond at Home

Philadelphia scored five runs in Tuesday's loss to Houston after a three-game stretch against Atlanta that produced nine total runs. The Phillies are batting .242 with a .312 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage while hitting 171 home runs. Kyle Schwarber leads the power production with 43 homers and 88 RBI, while Bryce Harper is batting .271 with a .388 on-base percentage, 27 home runs and 80 RBI. Brandon Marsh is hitting .267, and Bryson Stott has 24 stolen bases with 61 RBI.

Philadelphia's pitching staff has been stronger, posting a 3.98 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 1,421 strikeouts. The Phillies have allowed five runs or fewer in each of their last five games, including a 1-0 victory against Atlanta. Philadelphia is 40-33 at Citizens Bank Park and remains four games behind the Braves in the NL East. The Phillies also sit near the top of the National League playoff picture, with Schwarber and Harper providing the biggest power threats in a lineup that has scored 647 runs.

Injuries: Tanner Banks, Felix Reyes, Johan Rojas, and Adolis Garcia are on the 60-day IL. Caleb Kilian is on the 15-day IL.

Pitching Matchup

Houston Astros - Cristian Javier

Cristian Javier is 2-5 with a 5.98 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across 49.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 55 hits, nine home runs, and 22 walks while recording 50 strikeouts. Javier has allowed more hits than innings pitched, and his WHIP reflects the number of baserunners he has faced. His strikeout total remains solid relative to his workload, but limiting hits and walks will be important.

Philadelphia Phillies - Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler is 12-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 136.1 innings. Wheeler has allowed 104 hits and 20 home runs while striking out 163 and walking 43. The right-hander's strikeout production stands out, with his 163 punchouts well above his innings total. Wheeler has also kept his WHIP close to one while holding opponents to fewer hits than innings pitched, helping him build a strong record and ERA.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Pick

• Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia is the pick behind Zack Wheeler and a pitching staff that has been much stronger than Houston's this season. Wheeler owns a 12-5 record, 3.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 163 strikeouts, while Cristian Javier has a 5.98 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Houston has dangerous power through Yordan Alvarez, but Philadelphia counters with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. The Phillies are also 40-33 at Citizens Bank Park, and the starting pitching advantage supports Philadelphia bouncing back with a home victory Thursday.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Over/Under Pick

• Over

Over is the pick with Houston sending Cristian Javier to the mound after he posted a 5.98 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across 49.2 innings. The Astros have also recorded a 4.51 team ERA while allowing 183 home runs, creating scoring possibilities for Philadelphia's power hitters. Houston has enough offense to contribute behind Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, who have combined for 81 homers. Wheeler can limit damage, but the pitching numbers around Javier and Houston's staff point to a higher-scoring matchup Thursday.