Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 5, 2025
In the opening game of a three-game American League West series, the Houston Astros are taking on the Texas Rangers inside Globe Life Field on Friday evening in our Astros vs. Rangers prediction. This article is being written ahead of Thursday’s Astros game. The Astros are first in the AL West with a 77-63 record and are sending right-hander Hunter Brown to the mound. The Rangers are third in the AL West with a 72-69 record and have veteran righty Merrill Kelly getting the ball. Dial in your read with MLB picks for Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers before first pitch.
Astros Looking to Click
The Houston Astros are looking to continue playing well after their 8-7 home win against the New York Yankees on Thursday. The lineup was able to go 11-for-33 with four walks and eight strikeouts on the day as Jeremy Pena homered on the day. The Astros went 3-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded six men on base. Jason Alexander did not factor into the decision as he gave up three runs in five innings of work.
The Astros are sending righty Hunter Brown to pitch and he is clicking as in 27 starts, he is 10-7 in 161.2 innings with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He has been able to limit the amount of homers as he allowed 14 this season after giving up 18 in 170.0 innings in 2024. BVrown faced the Rangers twice already this season as he was 0-2 in 13.0 innings and allowed five runs on eight hits with two walks and 17 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Houston
- Pitcher Spencer Arrighetti: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher John Rooney: Concussion/Nasal (OUT)
- Pitcher Bennett Sousa: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Brandon Walter: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Hader: Shoulder (OUT)
- Third baseman Isaac Paredes: Hamstring (OUT)
- Second baseman Brendan Rodgers: Oblique (OUT)
- Center fielder Jake Meyers: Calf (OUT)
- Right fielder Zach Dezenzo: Hand (OUT)
- Right fielder Pedro Leon: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Ronel Blanco: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Hayden Wesneski: Elbow (OUT)
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Rangers Ready to Bounce Back
The Texas Rangers are looking to bounce back after Wednesday’s 2-0 road loss against the Arizona Diamondbacks in their most recent game. The Rangers were able to go 5-for-33 with three walks and seven strikeouts at the plate as Michael Helman and Alejandro Osuna each stole a base. Texas finished 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position while leaving nine men on base. Jack Leiter lost the start as he allowed two runs in six innings of work.
Veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly is going to be taking the mound for the Rangers in this game and has been pitching well as he is 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 164.0 innings over 28 starts. He has been limiting hits as he has a .208 batting average against up to this point. Kelly faced the Astros once back in 2023 as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks in a loss as he pitched seven innings and gave up one run on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts.
Injury Report for Texas
- Pitcher Danny Coulombe: Shoulder (OUT)
- Shortstop Corey Seager: Appendectomy (OUT)
- Center fielder Evan Carter: Wrist (OUT)
- Pitcher Nathan Eovaldi: Rotator Cuff (OUT)
- Second baseman Marcus Semien: Foot (OUT)
- Center fielder Sam Haggerty: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Jon Gray: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Tyler Mahle: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Cody Bradford: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Sborz: Shoulder (OUT)
Astros vs. Rangers Pick
Spread Pick for Astros vs. Rangers
- Houston Astros ML (4 units)
There is a bit of a gap between the last few starts as Hunter Brown is 1-3 with a 1.69 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 42.2 innings (seven starts) while Merrill Kelly is 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 35.1 innings (six starts) lately. There is a large gap between these offenses over the course of the season as well as the Astros are 13th with a .719 team OPS thus far, while the Rangers are down at 25th with a .695 team OPS heading into this game. All in all, go with the Houston Astros to secure the victory.
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Over/Under Pick for Astros vs. Rangers
- Under (5 units)
These bullpens have been pitching well throughout the season as the Astros are ninth with a 3.75 reliever ERA, while the Rangers are seventh with a 3.66 bullpen ERA up to this point. Both lineups have also struggled throughout the year in terms of hitting with runners in scoring position, as Houston is 22nd with a .719 team OPS with runners in scoring position, while Texas is 24th in the bigs with a .700 team OPS in those chances. The under has hit in six of the previous 10 games against one another, so take the under here.
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