Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Picks and Prediction for Sunday July 12, 2026

The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers continue their series on Sunday, July 12, 2026, at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35 p.m. ET, with television coverage on MLB.TV. Houston enters the matchup with a 46-50 overall record and a 23-26 road record, while Texas is 48-46 overall and 23-21 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. ESPN Analytics gives the Rangers a 58.9% chance of winning compared with 41.1% for the Astros. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.

Houston Tries to Get Back on Track

The Astros enter Sunday’s game with a 46-50 overall record and a 23-26 mark away from home. Houston has gone 2-3 over its last five games. The Astros most recently fell to Texas 7-3 after dropping two of three games against Washington. During that series, Houston lost 8-2, defeated Washington 6-3, and came up short in a 12-11 contest. Before that road trip, the Astros picked up a 2-0 victory over Tampa Bay.

Houston is batting .241 with 435 runs, 778 hits, and 128 home runs. The Astros own a .315 on-base percentage and a .410 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has produced a 4.81 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .242. Houston has recorded 824 strikeouts while issuing 420 walks. The Astros are 19-16 in day games.

Houston’s biggest strength is its power. The Astros have hit 128 home runs, which is the highest total between these two clubs. They have also scored more runs than Texas and accumulated more strikeouts on the mound. The challenge has been preventing opponents from scoring, as Houston’s pitching staff owns the higher ERA and WHIP entering this contest.

Texas Looks to Continue Its Winning Stretch

Texas comes into Sunday’s matchup with a 48-46 overall record and a 23-21 home record. The Rangers have gone 3-2 over their last five games. They most recently defeated Houston 7-3 after earning wins over the Angels by scores of 7-6 and 8-3. Their only losses during the stretch came against the Angels by a 13-1 score and against Detroit by a 6-3 margin.

The Rangers are batting .244 with 390 runs, 765 hits, and 106 home runs. Texas has posted a .320 on-base percentage and a .397 slugging percentage. The Rangers’ pitching staff owns a 4.07 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP while holding opponents to a .241 batting average. They have recorded 800 strikeouts while issuing 267 walks. Texas is 16-16 in day games.

Texas holds its biggest advantage on the mound. The Rangers have a significantly lower ERA and WHIP than Houston while also allowing opponents to hit a slightly lower batting average. They have also issued far fewer walks over the course of the season, helping offset Houston’s edge in offensive production.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Picks and Prediction

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Pick

• Pick: Texas Rangers Moneyline

Texas is my moneyline selection based on the overall statistical profile provided. The Rangers have the better overall record, the better home record, and they won the opening game of the series 7-3. Their pitching staff owns a 4.07 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP compared with Houston’s 4.81 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. ESPN Analytics also favors Texas with a 58.9% probability, and I believe the Rangers’ pitching advantage is the deciding factor in this matchup.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Total Pick

• Pick: Take the over if the total is set at 8.5

I would take the over if the total is set at 8.5. Houston has hit 128 home runs this season, while Texas has added 106. The Astros have scored 435 runs, and the Rangers have contributed 390, giving the clubs a combined total of 825 runs. Houston’s pitching staff has also posted a 4.81 ERA, which creates additional scoring opportunities. Based strictly on the supplied season statistics, I would lean toward the over at 8.5.

Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers 6 – Houston Astros 4

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.