Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 11, 2025
In our Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction, the Houston Astros are first in the AL West with a 78-67 record so far. They are having right-hander Cristian Javier get the start as he is coming off a loss against the New York Yankees where he pitched 4.1 innings and allowed four runs on six hits with three walks and four strikeouts.
The Toronto Blue Jays are clicking as they are sitting in first place in the AL East with an 83-61 record entering this game. Veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman takes the ball and is coming off a victory over the New York Yankees where he allowed one run on four hits with one walk and five strikeouts in eight innings of work.
Dial in your read with MLB picks for Houston Astros vs the Toronto Blue Jays before first pitch.
WRITTEN BEFORE WEDNESDAY’S GAME
Astros Shaking Off Rough Stretch
The Houston Astros are looking to improve a bit more at the plate as the team is 13th in the sport with a .719 team OPS while averaging 4.22 runs per game. Houston has been a bit too aggressive in the batter’s box as they rank 25th in baseball with 429 total walks. Shortstop Jeremy Pena has been hitting well as he has a .830 OPS with 15 home runs, 54 RBI, 60 runs scored, and 20 steals while being caught twice.
Cristian Javier has not pitched enough this season to factor into the percentile rankings on his Baseball Savant page as he has a 3.93 xERA, 88.3 MPH average exit velocity, 13.5 walk percentage, and 22.5 strikeout percentage. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, changeup, sweeper, knuckle curve, sinker) and his fastball has been his putaway pitch as hitters are 6-for-32 against it with zero extra-base hits and seven strikeouts thus far. Javier faced the Blue Jays once last season as he secured the win by pitched five shutout innings and gave up one hit with five walks and three strikeouts.
Injury Report for Houston
- Pitcher Luis Garcia: Elbow (Questionable)
- Pitcher Kaleb Ort: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Spencer Arrighetti: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher John Rooney: Concussion/Nasal (OUT)
- Pitcher Bennett Sousa: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Brandon Walter: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Josh Hader: Shoulder (OUT)
- Third baseman Isaac Paredes: Hamstring (OUT)
- Second baseman Brendan Rodgers: Oblique (OUT)
- Right fielder Zach Dezenzo: Hand (OUT)
- Right fielder Pedro Leon: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Ronel Blanco: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Hayden Wesneski: Elbow (OUT)
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Blue Jays Looking to Capture AL East Crown
The Toronto Blue Jays are doing an amazing job at the plate as they are second in the bigs with a .770 team OPS while scoring 4.99 runs per game. The team has been hitting for a solid amount of power as they are 11th with 175 total home runs hit. First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr has been leading the way at the plate as he has a .304/.396/.500 slash line with 23 homers, 79 RBI, 92 runs scored, and five steals on nine tries.
Kevin Gausman is pitching well this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 82nd percentile in chase percentage, 76th percentile in walk percentage, 61st percentile in strikeout percentage, and 60th percentile in whiff percentage. He has four different pitches (fastball, splitter, slider, sinker) and his splitter has been doing well as hitters have a .172 batting average and .293 slugging percentage with six home runs and 86 strikeouts. Springs last faced the Red Sox as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023 without factoring into the decision as he pitched three innings and allowed one run on one hit with zero walks and five strikeouts. Gausman faced the Astros once already this season in a losing effort as he pitched six innings and allowed four runs on six hits with three walks (one intentional) and six strikeouts.
Injury Report for Toronto
- Shortstop Bo Bichette: Knee (OUT)
- Pitcher Robinson Pina: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Nick Sandlin: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Yimi Garcia: Ankle (OUT)
- Pitcher Bowden Francis: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Burr: Shoulder (OUT)
- Right fielder Anthony Santander: Shoulder (OUT)
- Pitcher Alek Manoah: Elbow (OUT)
- Pitcher Angel Bastardo: Elbow (OUT)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick
Spread Pick for Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays ML (4 units)
Cristian Javier is still trying to get his footing as he is pitching to a 4.43 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 20.1 innings over five starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, while Kevin Gausman is pitching well as he is 2-3 with a 3.13 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 46.0 innings over his previous seven starts. These offenses are on two completely different levels since the All-Star break as the Astros are scoring 3.96 runs in their 49 games, while the Blue Jays are averaging 5.81 runs in their 48 games since the break. All in all, go with the Toronto Blue Jays to secure the win in this game.
Over/Under Pick for Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- UNDER (5 units)
Both bullpens have been stepping up throughout the season and limiting runs. Houston is ninth in baseball with a 3.71 reliever ERA, while Toronto is 16th with a 4.07 bullpen ERA so far. Over the last seven days, these teams are pitching well as the Astros are pitching a 3.30 team ERA while the Blue Jays are pitching to a 2.31 team ERA in that stretch. The under has hit in each of the previous five meetings between these team,s so take the UNDER here as well.
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