Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, September 10, 2025
The MLB action continues on Wednesday with a marquee matchup between the Houston Astros (78-67) and the Toronto Blue Jays (83-61), and we’ve got you covered with our Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction. Below I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 7:07 ET from the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Astros Sit Atop the A.L. West
It was a rocky start to the season for the Houston Astros, but they’ve fully recovered and find themselves sitting atop the American League West heading into the home stretch. The Astros have won the division in seven of the last eight years. Currently, Houston (78-67) is 1.5 games above second-place Seattle, and they’re the betting favorites (-180) to win the West. The Astros are just 2-5 in their last seven games, and they dropped Tuesday’s series opener to the Blue Jays in a 4-3 extra-innings affair.
Tuesday’s 4-3 defeat saw Bryan Abreu (1.0 IP, 2 ER) blow a save in the 9th, while Craig Kimbrel (0.1 IP, 0 ER) took the loss in the 10th after allowing the “ghost runner” to score. Offensively, Carlos Correa homered in the loss, while Yainer Diaz went 3-for-4 with an RBI.
- Jason Alexander gets the nod for Wednesday night’s contest, and the 32-year-old hurler hasn’t been overpowering in 10 appearances (59.2 IP) this season.
- The right-hander comes into this game at 4-1 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
- Alexander last pitched on Wednesday against the Yankees, where he gave up three earned runs on six hits and two walks over 5.0 innings.
- It was a no-decision effort in an 8-7 victory for the Astros.
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Blue Jays Holding Down the A.L. East Lead
Meanwhile, the expectations weren’t too lofty for the Toronto Blue Jays this season, especially considering they play in a loaded division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and up-and-coming Orioles. Apparently, the players didn’t get that message, as they’ve been spectacular this year, boasting an American League’s best record of 83-61. Toronto currently sits atop the A.L. East, owning a 3.0-game cushion over second-place New York. The Blue Jays are 4-3 in their last six games, and they notched a 4-3 come-from-behind win over the Astros on Tuesday.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa capped off a 9th-inning comeback on Tuesday night, registering a two-run single to tie the game at 3-3. Tyler Heineman drove in the game-winning run in the 10th courtesy of an RBI fielder’s choice. The late-inning heroics meant that Jeff Hoffman (1.0 IP, 0 ER) picked up the win in relief.
- Jose Berrios will oppose Alexander on Wednesday, and he has been serviceable across 28 starts (154.2 IP) this season.
- The right-hander comes into this contest at 9-5, owning a 4.02 ERA (32nd) and a 1.29 WHIP (33rd).
- Most recently, Berrios faced the Reds and gave up six runs (two earned) on five hits and two walks over 2.0 innings.
- It was a no-decision effort in a 12-9 barnburning win for the Blue Jays.
Astros vs. Blue Jays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Astros vs. Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-130) (5 units)
I’ll go ahead and ride with the Blue Jays at home on Tuesday night. They’ve been exceptional at home this season, posting an impressive 46-24 SU record. Meanwhile, the Astros are a mediocre 35-35 SU on the road, while also sitting at just 2-5 SU in their last seven games.
Furthermore, the Jays have been crushing the ball recently. Over the last seven days, Toronto is second in wOBA (.387) and third in ISO (.247). Houston is a mid-tier 18th (.306) and 20th (.145) in those respective categories. I’ll dive into it more below, but Jose Berrios should be primed for a decent outing as well. Between Berrios, the offensive advantage, and the home-field edge, I don’t mind laying the juice with the Jays.
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| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Over/Under Pick for Astros vs. Blue Jays
- Under 8.5 (-113) (5 units)
Let’s pick it back up with Berrios, who has dominated the Astros throughout his career. Across 109 head-to-head at-bats, Houston’s current roster is slashing just .229/.300/.376 against him. With the Astros not swinging the sticks too well right now, Berrios should be serviceable in front of his home crowd.
On the flip side, we have Jason Alexander going, and his 4.68 ERA is a bit worrisome. However, over his last six outings (34.0 IP), the right-hander has logged a 2.65 ERA. Houston also boasts a lethal bullpen, which is ranks ninth in ERA (3.71) and third in WHIP (1.22). I expect another lower-scoring affair in Toronto on Wednesday. Give me the under.
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