Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 17, 2026
The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros meet Thursday at Daikin Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 7:15 PM ET and the game televised on MLB.TV and FOX. Kansas City is 66-85, fifth in the AL Central and 11 games behind Chicago, with 11 games remaining. The Royals are 10.5 games behind Cleveland for the third AL Wild Card spot. Houston is 76-75, first in the AL West and one game ahead of Texas, with 11 games left. Kansas City has lost three straight, while Houston won the most recent meeting 4-2. Cash a winner with our free MLB picks.
Kansas City Royals Trying to End a Three-Game Slide
Kansas City has dropped three straight after losing 4-2 to Houston and consecutive games at Boston. The Royals are batting .245 with a .315 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage, scoring 636 runs with 156 home runs. Bobby Witt Jr. leads Kansas City with a .280 average, .359 on-base percentage and 144 hits. Carter Jensen has a team-high 24 home runs and 73 RBI, while Jac Caglianone is batting .279 with 23 homers and 70 RBI.
Michael Massey has been productive with a .278 average and 11 home runs, while Witt adds another threat with 41 stolen bases. The Royals rank 25th in MLB pitching with a 4.63 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Opponents are batting .259, while Kansas City has allowed 181 home runs and recorded 1,088 strikeouts. The Royals have struggled away from home at 27-49, making this another difficult road assignment.
Injuries: Tony Gonsolin (out), Connor Seabold (out), James McArthur (out), Beck Way (out), Carlos Estevez (out).
Houston Astros Trying to Build on Their Latest Win
Houston snapped a three-game losing streak with a 4-2 victory over Kansas City in the most recent meeting. The Astros are batting .239 with a .314 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage, scoring 673 runs with 200 home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been the clear offensive leader, batting .310 with a .429 on-base percentage and .594 slugging percentage. Alvarez also leads Houston with 39 home runs and 98 RBI. Isaac Paredes adds 21 homers and 85 RBI.
Christian Walker has 25 home runs and 80 RBI, while Jeremy Pena is batting .273 with 19 homers, 49 RBI and nine stolen bases. The Astros rank 24th in MLB pitching with a 4.55 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Opponents are batting .239, and Houston has recorded 1,305 strikeouts while allowing 192 home runs. The Astros are 38-38 at Daikin Park and remain narrowly ahead of Texas in the AL West. C
Injuries: Brice Matthews (out), Steven Okert (out), Mike Burrows (out), Carlos Correa (out).
Pitching Matchup
Kansas City Royals - Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo is 7-8 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 164 innings. The right-hander has allowed 185 hits and 53 walks while recording 126 strikeouts. Lugo has surrendered 19 home runs, and his high hit total has been the main contributor to his elevated WHIP.
Houston Astros - Undecided
Houston had not yet announced its starting pitcher at the time this preview was written.
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Game Pick
- Houston Astros
Houston is the pick after taking the most recent meeting 4-2 and holding several offensive advantages. The Astros have hit 200 home runs compared with Kansas City’s 156, with Alvarez producing 39 homers and a 1.024 OPS. Lugo has a 4.99 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while allowing 185 hits across 164 innings. Kansas City is also just 27-49 away from home. Houston’s power and stronger season pitching numbers make the Astros the play in Thursday’s matchup at Daikin Park.
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Over/Under Pick
- Over
Over is the play with both pitching staffs ranked in the bottom third of MLB. Kansas City owns a 4.63 team ERA and 1.39 WHIP, while Houston sits at 4.55 and 1.35. Lugo has allowed 185 hits in 164 innings and carries a 4.99 ERA. Houston has also hit 200 home runs, led by Alvarez with 39 and Walker with 25. Kansas City has enough power through Jensen and Caglianone to contribute, making a higher-scoring game the likelihood for Thursday.