Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 12, 2025
The MLB action continues on Friday with an interleague matchup between the Kansas City Royals (74-73) and the Philadelphia Phillies (87-60), and we’ve got you covered with our Royals vs. Phillies prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 6:45 ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Royals Sliding in September
The Kansas City Royals entered 2025 on the heels of an ALDS appearance in 2024, and the young core was hoping to make another playoff push this year. Unfortunately, it has just been a mediocre campaign for manager Matt Quatraro and his Royals, as they’re just 74-73 entering the weekend. Kansas City is now 10.5 games out of the divisional race, while sitting 4.5 games out of the wild card. They just dropped three out of four games to the Guardians (L: 10-2, L: 2-0, W: 4-3, L: 3-2) in a pivotal midweek series.
Offense was tough to come by in Thursday’s 3-2 defeat. Both runs came courtesy of a two-run bomb in the 1st by Vinnie Pasquantino. Stephen Kolek (6.2 IP, 1 ER) was sharp in his start, and it was ultimately John Schreiber (1.1 IP, 2 ER) who blew the save and took the loss in relief.
- Michael Lorenzen heads to the bump for the Royals on Friday, and the 33-year-old starter hasn’t been overpowering in 23 outings (124.1 IP) this season.
- The right-hander enters the weekend at 5-10, bringing in a 4.63 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.
- Most recently, Lorenzen faced the Twins and conceded four earned runs on seven hits over 5.1 innings.
- It was a losing effort in a 5-1 defeat, as the Royals moved to 0-2 in his last two starts.
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Phillies Sweep the Mets out of Philly
The National League was a two-horse race for a majority of the 2025 season, but the Philadelphia Phillies took matters into their own hands and have distanced themselves from the competition. They just swept the second-place Mets in four games (1-0, 9-3, 11-3, 6-4), and the Phillies now own an 11.0-game cushion in the East. At this point, Philadelphia (87-60) is only looking up at Milwaukee (89-58) for first place in the entire N.L. The Phillies have the second-shortest odds (+650) to win the World Series.
The Phillies, and specifically Jesus Luzardo, gave up four earned runs in the 1st inning against the Mets on Thursday night. However, the southpaw settled in and ended up picking up the win after completing 8.0 innings of work. Jhoan Duran (1.0 IP, 0 ER) came on to log his 29th save. Offensively, Otto Kemp stole the show, going 2-for-4 with a home run, three RBI, and two runs scored.
- Walker Buehler gets the nod for Friday’s series opener, and this will be his Philadelphia debut after joining the team following getting released by Boston.
- The right-hander made 23 appearances with the Red Sox this year, going 7-7 with a 5.45 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP.
- Buehler should be fresh, as his last start came on August 24th against the Yankees.
- He lasted only 2.1 innings in a no-decision effort, allowing two earned runs on two hits and a walk.
Royals vs. Phillies Pick
Moneyline Pick for Royals vs. Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-130) (5 units)
The Royals, in my opinion, are done. They just lost three out of four games to the Guardians in a pivotal midweek series, pushing them to 4.5 games out of the wild card race. Kansas City is now just 4-7 SU in their last 11 games.
Meanwhile, the vibes couldn’t be higher for the Phillies, as they just swept the division rival Mets in four games. They’ll turn to Walker Buehler (5.45 ERA), who of course, I have my concerns about, but it’s not like the Phillies are running into a top-tier starter either. They’ll take on Michael Lorenzen (4.63 ERA). In what’s essentially a wash in the starting pitching department, I’ll gladly take a flier on the home team (49-23 SU at home), which has a far superior offense. Give me Philly at a relatively cheap price.
Over/Under Pick for Royals vs. Phillies
- Over 9.0 (-110) (5 units)
I don’t have a ton of faith in Kansas City’s offense, but I just can’t ignore the poor form of these two starting pitchers – I’m taking the over. We should see Philadelphia’s offense do some damage in this game. They’ve seen Lorenzen very well, as the current roster is slashing .271/.394/.458 against him over 59 at-bats. Overall, the Phillies are scoring 4.82 runs per game, which is ninth in the Majors.
On the flip side, we should see some scoring from the Royals. I mean, Buehler has just been abysmal this year with a 5.45 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. In his last three outings (12.1 IP), Buehler has posted a 5.84 ERA. Philadelphia’s coaching staff may be able to tweak his form and make him serviceable for the postseason, but I don’t think it’ll be an instant fix. I’m taking the over.
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