Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks for Sunday, September 14, 2025
The MLB action continues on Sunday with an intriguing matchup between the Kansas City Royals (74-75) and the Philadelphia Phillies (89-60), and we’ve got you covered with our Royals vs. Phillies prediction. Below, I’ll dive into each team’s recent form and break down the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 1:35 ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Royals Sliding Out of Playoffs
The Kansas City Royals are coming off of a campaign where they made a run to the ALDS, but it’s looking like the organization won’t be making a trip to the playoffs for a second consecutive season. The Royals were in contention, but following their current 1-6 run, they’re sliding out of contention. Kansas City is now 74-75 overall, sitting 6.5 games out of the wild card. They’ve dropped three straight games, losing one against the Guardians (3-2) and the first two contests of this series with the Phillies (8-2, 8-6).
Saturday’s 8-6 loss to the Phillies ultimately fell on the bullpen, and specifically Angel Zerpa (1.0 IP, 3 ER) in relief. The offense scored six runs on 10 hits. Salvador Perez led the way, blasting a pair of home runs and collecting three RBI.
- Noah Cameron heads to the bump for Sunday’s finale, and the 26-year-old has been sharp in 21 starts (120.0 IP) this season.
- The left-hander comes into this contest at 7-7, bringing in a 3.00 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.
- Most recently, Cameron faced the Guardians and held them to two earned runs on six hits over 7.0 innings.
- He was saddled with the loss in a 2-0 defeat.
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Phillies Sit Atop the N.L. East
Meanwhile, what at one point was a close National League East has seen the Philadelphia Phillies stretch out a massive divisional lead. The Phillies, who are 89-60 overall, sit atop the division with a 13.0-game lead. Philadelphia has won six straight games, as well as nine of its last 10. The Phillies swept the Mets in four games (1-0, 9-3, 11-3, 6-4) and have followed it up with consecutive victories over the Royals (8-2, 8-6) to open their current series. From a sports betting perspective, Philadelphia now sits at +650 to win the World Series.
It was none other than Kyle Schwarber powering the offense to a win on Saturday. He nuked his 51st home run of the campaign, capping off a 2-for-3 day at the dish. Taijuan Walker (5.0 IP, 4 ER) wasn’t overpowering in his start, but picked up the win. Jhoan Duran (1.0 IP, 0 ER) logged his 30th save to close out the game.
- Aaron Nola will oppose Cameron on Sunday, and this has been a forgettable campaign for the veteran starter.
- The right-hander comes into the game at 4-8 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 14 starts (75.0 IP).
- Nola is coming off of his best start this season, a 6.0-inning shutout performance against the Mets, where he limited them to three hits and two walks.
- He earned the win in a low-scoring 1-0 victory.
Royals vs. Phillies Pick
Moneyline Pick for Royals vs. Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-160) (5 units)
I recognize that Aaron Nola hasn’t been great this season, but at the same time, there’s a good chance that Philadelphia’s dominant offense propels them to a sweep and their seventh straight victory. The Phillies have been on fire, winning nine of their last 10 games, so I’ll lock them in to complete the sweep.
Circling back to Nola, he is actually coming off of his best start of the year, where he blanked the Mets over 6.0 innings last time out. Furthermore, the Phillies’ bullpen has been sharp recently, ranking eighth in ERA (3.38) and seventh in WHIP (1.26) over the last 14 days. I’m confident that their pitching staff can limit this Kansas City offense that’s just 28th in runs per game (3.79) this year.
Over/Under Pick for Royals vs. Phillies
- Over 9.0 (-105) (5 units)
I expect Philadelphia’s pitching staff to do enough to put them in a spot to win, but I’m also not confident that they’ll completely shut down the Kansas City offense. I just can’t ignore Aaron Nola’s abysmal 6.24 ERA this season. He has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last seven outings.
However, the crux of this play on the over is Philadelphia’s offense. They’ve been on a tear during the 6-0 run, averaging 7.2 runs per game. Over the last seven days, the Phillies are first in wOBA (.296) and second in ISO (.224). Even though Noah Cameron (3.00 ERA) has been good, I still think he gets touched up for a few runs against this top-tier offense. Give me the over.
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