LA Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies, NLDS, Prediction and Picks for Monday, October 6th, 2025
The NLDS continues on Monday, and it’s the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers (1-0) who hold a series lead heading into Game 2 against the Philadelphia Phillies (0-1). The champs won Game 1 by a score of 5-3. Below I’ll dive into the starting pitching matchup and key information for Game 2, as well as provide you with our Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction. First pitch is scheduled for 6:08 ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Dodgers Mount a Comeback, Win Game 1
The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off of a World Series title in 2024, and this squad looks like it’s primed to repeat as champions this season. The Dodgers got their postseason journey started with a two-game sweep of the Reds (10-5, 8-4), and now they’ve made the trip out east to take on the second-seeded Phillies in a five-game series.
Los Angeles won Saturday night’s series-opening game against Philadelphia in a 5-3 affair, and this marks their eighth consecutive victory overall. Teoscar Hernandez was the hero in Game 1, blasting a three-run, go-ahead bomb in the 7th to erase a 3-2 deficit. Shohei Ohtani (6.0 IP, 3 ER) still managed to secure the win out of the starter’s role, while Roki Sasaki (1.0 IP, 0 ER) posted a scoreless frame in the 9th to secure the save. The Dodgers are now priced at -350 to win this series, while sitting at +240 to win the World Series.
- Blake Snell gets the nod for Game 2 on Monday night, and the 32-year-old starter was excellent in 11 starts (61.1 IP) this season.
- The southpaw went 5-4 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.
- Snell already has a postseason start in the books this year, as he tossed 7.0 innings against the Reds in the Wild Card Round and held them to two earned runs on four hits and a walk.
- He picked up the win in a 10-5 victory, as the Dodgers improved to 4-0 in his last four outings.
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Phillies’ Bullpen Blows a Lead
As for the Philadelphia Phillies, Saturday’s 5-3 loss to the Dodgers was their first action in six days following the regular season. The Phillies won the National League East with ease, finishing with a 13.0-game edge over the second-place Mets. Philadelphia already finds itself being behind the eight ball, sitting at +280 to win this specific five-game series. They’ve also dropped to +1000 to win the World Series.
Saturday’s 5-3 Game 1 loss to the Dodgers ultimately fell on the bullpen, and specifically David Robertson. He lasted only 0.1 innings in the defeat, allowing two earned runs on one hit. Offensively, the Phillies scored all three runs in the 2nd inning. JT Realmuto drove in two runs with a triple, and Harrison Bader brought him home with a sacrifice fly.
- Jesus Luzardo will oppose Snell in Game 2, and the 28-year-old hurler looked solid in his debut campaign with the Phillies.
- Across 32 starts (183.2 IP), the southpaw went 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA (28th) and a 1.22 WHIP (25th).
- Luzardo is well-rested, as his last start was a 7.0-inning effort against the Marlins on September 24th.
- He held his former club scoreless while racking up 10 strikeouts in an 11-1 victory.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Pick
Moneyline Pick for Dodgers vs. Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-130) (5 units)
I typically wouldn’t love laying this type of juice on the road in a playoff spot, but a lot of the data supports a play on the Dodgers in this spot.
For starters, the Dodgers have a ton of momentum. They’ve been the more active team, going 2-0 SU in the wild card. They’ve now won eight straight games overall. Furthermore, they’ll turn to Blake Snell, who just mowed down the Phillies (7.0 IP, 0 ER) back on September 17th in a 5-0 win. This is a part of the current four-game winning streak in Snell’s starts. Finally, there were some concerns surrounding Los Angeles’ bullpen entering the postseason. However, Roki Sasaki (2.0 IP, 0 ER) has been lights out, silencing any doubters. I’m riding with the Dodgers to go up 2-0 in the series.
Over/Under Pick for Dodgers vs. Phillies
- Under 7.5 (-120) (5 units)
Circling back to Snell, he has been fantastic this season. The southpaw posted a 2.35 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 11 regular-season starts (61.1 IP). Snell has neutralized this Philadelphia lineup throughout his career. Their current roster is slashing just .168/.269/.299 against him over 137 at-bats.
On the other hand, Jesus Luzardo has performed well against the Dodgers throughout his career. Their lineup is slashing just .223/.266/.417 against him over 103 at-bats. Luzardo closed the regular season with a 7.0-inning scoreless outing against the Marlins, and I think he’ll keep it rolling in this one. Philadelphia’s bullpen obviously squandered the Game 1 lead, but they’ve been solid overall in the last 14 days, ranking 12th in ERA (3.26) and eighth in K/9 (9.78). This is desperation mode for Philly – give me the under.
