LA Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks for Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code SSWC We’re onto the National League Divisional Series, and we have a heavyweight series getting underway out east between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies. We’ve got you covered with our Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction for Game 1. Below, I’ll recap each team’s path to the NLDS and dive into the starting pitching matchup, before concluding with picks and predictions on this contest that gets underway at 6:38 ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. Read on for free MLB picks on this game, and check out that link for other game breakdowns.
Dodgers Sweep Reds, Advance
Manager Dave Roberts and his Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a World Series victory in 2024, and they’re primed for another deep October run in 2025. A 93-69 regular season in 2025 earned them another division title, but it wasn’t good enough to escape the wild card round. The Dodgers hosted the sixth-seeded Reds in the wild card, but promptly swept them in two games (10-5, 8-4). Los Angeles has now won seven consecutive games overall.
From this point, the Dodgers are slight -130 favorites to win this five-game series against the Phillies. As for repeating as champions, Los Angeles is the favorite at +360. Touching on a couple of key statistics, the Dodgers averaged 5.14 runs per game (second) this season. They have arguably the best starting rotation remaining, but their bullpen appears to be a liability, posting a 10.38 ERA this postseason.
- Shohei Ohtani gets the nod for Saturday’s series opener, and the 31-year-old superstar will be making his first postseason appearance on the bump.
- The right-hander logged 14 starts (47.0 IP) for the Dodgers this season, going 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
- Ohtani’s well-rested, as his last start came on September 23rd against the Diamondbacks, where he held them scoreless over 6.0 innings and conceded five hits.
- He took a no-decision in a 5-4 defeat, capping off a month where he posted a 0.00 ERA in three outings (14.2 IP).
Second-Seeded Phillies are Well-Rested
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies are well-rested thanks to a 96-66 record that earned them a bye to bypass the wild card round. Manager Rob Thomson and his squad won the National League East with relative ease this season, holding a 13.0-game edge over the second-place Mets. The Phillies closed the season on a pedestrian 4-4 run. From a statistical standpoint, Philadelphia averaged 4.80 runs per game (seventh) this season. Their pitching staff ranked eighth in ERA (3.79), and the bullpen specifically was 20th in ERA (4.27).
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As for the sports betting numbers, the Phillies are a slight underdog at +110 to win the series, despite having the home-field advantage. They have the second-shortest odds (+500) to win the World Series. Speaking of home-field advantage, Philadelphia went 55-26 SU at home this season.
- Cristopher Sanchez will toe the rubber on Saturday afternoon, and the 28-year-old was sneakily one of the most dominant pitchers in the Majors this season.
- The left-hander made 32 starts (202.0 IP) in 2025, going 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA (fifth) and a 1.06 WHIP (12th). His 212 strikeouts were the seventh-most in the Majors.
- Sanchez is on normal rest, as he last pitched on Sunday against the Twins, blanking them on two hits over 5.2 innings.
- He racked up eight strikeouts, but took a no-decision in the 2-1 victory.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Pick
Moneyline Pick for Dodgers vs. Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+106) (5 units)
These are two juggernauts in the National League, and the sports betting market is showing the proper respect by pricing this game pretty close to a pick ‘em. The Phillies are a slim -116 moneyline favorite, while the Dodgers can be found as high as +106. Any time that I can get a plus-money payout with Los Angeles, I’m likely going to take it. That’s the case here.
However, this isn’t just about getting a valuable line, as I do believe the Dodgers are playing well enough to secure the series-opening win. They’ll turn to Shohei Ohtani on the bump, and the right-hander is dialed in right now. In three September starts (14.2 IP), Ohtani posted a 0.00 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP to go along with 18 strikeouts. That includes a 5.0-inning scoreless, hitless effort against the Phillies. Los Angeles also has momentum and is hitting its stride after winning two games against Cincinnati last round. They’ve won seven straight overall.
Over/Under Pick for Dodgers vs. Phillies
- Over 7.5 (+100) (5 units)
I’m also playing the over in this one. If we can pinpoint one major weakness of the Dodgers, it's their bullpen. This is a relief group that finished the regular season ranked 21st in ERA (4.27) and 22nd in WHIP (1.33). So far in the postseason, they’ve already reared their ugly head, logging a 10.38 ERA and a horrendous 2.77 WHIP. The Phillies scored 4.80 runs per game this season, and increased that number to 5.33 at home. I think they find success late in this game to help get the game over the number.
On the other side of things, Cristopher Sanchez has had issues against the Dodgers this season. The left-hander made two starts (12.2 IP) against Los Angeles this year, and he gave up eight earned runs (5.68 ERA) on 13 hits. Their offense is scorching hot too, as they just averaged 9.0 runs per game in the wild card. I’m taking the over in this battle of two potent, star-studded offenses.
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