Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Picks - September 4, 2025
Thursday evening on the Major League diamond, and we have a Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction ready to rock and roll. The Dodgers have lost the first two games of this series and are now 78-61 on the year. The Pirates come in at 63-77 on the year. Can the Dodgers avoid getting swept? Read on to see our Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction.
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The Dodgers Are Struggling Right Now
The Dodgers enter Thursday’s contest with a 78–61 record and a narrow lead in the NL West, looking to bounce back after dropping the series opener 9–7 on Tuesday. Despite the loss, the offense showed its usual firepower—Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernández all reached base multiple times, and the team racked up 11 hits. Los Angeles ranks third in MLB in runs scored (707), second in home runs (204), and fifth in batting average (.253), making them one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.
Blake Snell (3–3, 2.41 ERA) gets the start Thursday, aiming to stabilize a rotation that’s been inconsistent behind ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Snell has allowed just 10 earned runs across 37.1 innings this season, striking out 38 while holding opponents to a .244 average. He’s gone five or more innings in six straight starts and is looking to notch his third quality start of the year. With a bullpen that leads MLB in holds (105) but has blown 22 saves, Snell’s ability to work deep into the game will be key.
Defensively, the Dodgers have been solid, ranking eighth in fielding percentage (.988) and turning 91 double plays. Injuries remain a concern—Max Muncy, Tommy Edman, and Roki Sasaki are all on the IL—but the depth of the roster has kept them competitive. With playoff positioning on the line and Snell on the mound, Los Angeles will look to tighten up late-game execution and reclaim momentum in Pittsburgh.
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Pirates Are Looking For The Sweep
The Pirates come into Thursday’s matchup at 63–77, sitting fifth in the NL Central but showing signs of life after Tuesday’s 9–7 win over the Dodgers. Jared Triolo led the way with two doubles and two RBIs, while Bubba Chandler earned the win with four innings of three-run ball. Pittsburgh’s offense, while inconsistent, has been opportunistic—ranking 30th in slugging (.353) but finding ways to manufacture runs when needed. They’ve gone 4–2 over their last six and are 33–34 at home.
Paul Skenes (9–9, 4.12 ERA) gets the start Thursday, looking to build on a season that’s featured flashes of dominance. The rookie phenom has struck out 142 batters in 128.1 innings and held opponents to a .238 average, but he’s also allowed 19 home runs and struggled with command at times. Against a Dodgers lineup that punishes mistakes, Skenes will need to mix speeds and avoid falling behind in counts. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack, converting 62% of save chances and allowing 25.4% of inherited runners to score.
Defensively, the Pirates have been steady, committing just 60 errors and ranking 12th in double plays turned. Injuries have thinned the roster—Jack Suwinski and Ronny Simon are both on the IL—but veterans like Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds continue to provide leadership. With Skenes on the mound and momentum from Tuesday’s win, Pittsburgh will look to challenge the Dodgers again and play spoiler down the stretch.
5 Units - LA Dodgers -120
The Dodgers are in prime position to avoid the sweep Thursday night behind Blake Snell, who enters with a 2.41 ERA and has allowed just 10 earned runs across 37.1 innings this season. Snell has quietly strung together five straight outings of five-plus innings and will face a Pirates lineup that ranks dead last in MLB in slugging (.353), home runs (100), and total runs scored (509). With Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith anchoring a Dodgers offense that ranks second in home runs (204) and third in total runs (707), Los Angeles has the firepower and pitching edge to bounce back after dropping the first two games of the series.
Pittsburgh will counter with rookie Paul Skenes, who’s shown flashes of dominance but remains vulnerable to elite lineups. He’s allowed 19 home runs and carries a 4.12 ERA despite a strong strikeout rate. The Dodgers have hit 440 extra-base hits this season and own a .438 slugging percentage—second-best in the majors—making them a tough matchup for a pitcher who’s struggled with command and hard contact. With playoff positioning on the line and a deep bullpen behind Snell, expect Los Angeles to tighten up defensively and deliver a focused, bounce-back effort to close the series with a win.
4 Units - Over 7
With the total set at 7 and both teams showing signs of offensive volatility, the Over looks like a strong lean. The Dodgers rank third in MLB in total runs (707) and second in home runs (204), while the Pirates have quietly hit the Over in four of their last ten games. Rookie Paul Skenes has allowed 19 homers this season and faces a stacked Dodgers lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith—all capable of turning a mistake into a multi-run inning. On the other side, Blake Snell has been sharp but not untouchable, and Pittsburgh has shown enough pop to contribute to a 5–4 or 6–3 type final. With warm September air and two bullpens that have been tested, this matchup has all the ingredients for a game that pushes past the number.
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