Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Wednesday September 23 2026

The Miami Marlins visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 PM ET with coverage on MLB.TV. Miami enters at 76-80 overall and 31-47 on the road, while Chicago is 87-69 overall and 45-33 at home. The Marlins came into this series on a three-game losing streak after being swept in San Diego, while the Cubs arrived having won two straight and three of their last five completed games. Chicago also won two of the first three meetings with Miami this season. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the season.

Starting Pitchers

Miami is scheduled to start Ryan Gusto, who enters at 1-5 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through 82.2 innings. He has allowed 93 hits and 11 home runs while recording 69 strikeouts against 26 walks. Chicago counters with Kevin Gausman, who is 9-12 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 172 innings. He has surrendered 173 hits and 25 home runs while striking out 177 against 46 walks. Gusto owns the lower ERA by 0.41 runs, but Gausman has the considerably lower WHIP and brings a much larger workload into Wednesday's matchup. The Chicago starter has also recorded more than a strikeout per inning, while Miami's scheduled starter has allowed more hits than innings pitched.

Miami Tries to Stop Its Road Slide

Miami enters Wednesday at 76-80 overall and sits third in the NL East. The Marlins have struggled away from home, where they are 31-47, and they came into this series after dropping three consecutive games in San Diego. Miami lost those contests 8-2, 7-6 in 10 innings and 7-3 after previously earning consecutive road victories over Arizona. That gives the Marlins a 2-3 record over their five most recently completed games, with their pitching staff allowing 27 runs during that stretch.

The Marlins are batting .249 with 692 runs, 1,295 hits and 161 home runs this season. They own a .327 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage. Miami's pitching staff carries a 4.16 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while holding opponents to a .237 batting average. The staff has issued 542 walks and recorded 1,265 strikeouts. Miami's pitching numbers are respectable overall, but its offense has not produced at nearly the same level as Chicago's.

Miami's biggest issue in this matchup is its combination of road struggles and a significant power disadvantage. The Marlins have hit 56 fewer home runs than Chicago and scored 143 fewer runs despite trailing the Cubs by only 55 hits. That suggests Chicago has been considerably more efficient at converting its offensive opportunities into runs. Miami did score six runs in one of its recent losses and four runs in each of its two preceding victories, so the offense is capable of contributing, but the Marlins will need considerably better run prevention than they showed during their three-game skid.

Chicago Brings the Stronger Offensive Profile

Chicago enters at 87-69 overall and is second in the NL Central, 11 games behind Milwaukee. The Cubs have been solid at Wrigley Field with a 45-33 home record and came into this series on consecutive victories. Chicago defeated Cincinnati 5-2 and 9-1 after losing the series opener 6-4. The Cubs are 3-2 across their five most recently completed games, with their other victory coming by an 8-4 score. Chicago scored 29 runs across those five contests, including at least five runs in each of its three victories.

The Cubs are batting .252 with 835 runs, 1,350 hits and 217 home runs. They have produced a .340 on-base percentage and .432 slugging percentage, giving them an advantage over Miami in each of those offensive categories. Chicago's pitching staff has an identical 4.16 ERA to Miami but owns the better WHIP at 1.26. The Cubs have issued 480 walks and recorded 1,212 strikeouts while allowing opponents to bat .243.

Chicago's offense provides the clearest separation between these teams. The Cubs have scored 143 more runs and hit 56 more home runs than Miami while producing only 55 additional hits, highlighting the difference in power and overall run creation. Chicago also owns the stronger home record compared with Miami's poor road mark. The pitching staffs have identical ERAs, but Chicago's lower WHIP and significantly lower walk total give the Cubs another small advantage. With Chicago having already won two of three meetings this season, the overall matchup continues to lean toward the home side.

Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline

Chicago is the preferred side because the Cubs combine a strong home record with the substantially better offensive profile. Chicago is 45-33 at Wrigley Field, while Miami has gone just 31-47 on the road. The Cubs have scored 835 runs compared with 692 for the Marlins and hold a 217-161 advantage in home runs. Chicago also owns the better WHIP, has issued 62 fewer walks and won two of the first three meetings between these clubs. Miami's scheduled starter has the better ERA entering the matchup, but the overall statistical profile and home-road splits favor Chicago on the moneyline.

Pick: Over 8 or Lower

The over is worth considering if the total is set at 8 or lower. Both pitching staffs enter with identical 4.16 ERAs, and neither scheduled starter has been dominant based on the supplied season numbers. Miami's last three completed games produced 10, 13 and 10 combined runs, while four of Chicago's last five completed contests reached at least eight total runs. The Cubs have also scored 29 runs across their last five completed games and possess one of the more productive statistical profiles in this matchup with 835 runs and 217 home runs. Wrigley Field conditions can always make the number important, so 8 is the preferred ceiling for an over position rather than chasing a substantially higher total.

Final Picks: Chicago Cubs Moneyline and Over 8 or Lower

This preview was completed on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.