Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Friday, August 14, 2026

The Miami Marlins head to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, to face the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, August 14, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET, with coverage available on MLB.TV. Miami enters the series opener at 62-59 overall and 24-35 on the road, while Cincinnati is 57-62 overall and 29-31 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before placing your wagers, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Miami will start Sandy Alcantara, who enters at 13-6 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 163.2 innings. Alcantara has allowed 150 hits and 42 walks while recording 128 strikeouts and surrendering 17 home runs. Cincinnati counters with Chase Burns, who has been excellent at 13-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 124 innings. Burns has allowed only 93 hits with 46 walks while striking out 143 and giving up 13 home runs. Both starters have delivered strong seasons, but Burns owns the advantage in ERA, WHIP and strikeout production.

Marlins Arrive in Cincinnati Riding a Hot Streak

Miami comes into Friday playing some of its best baseball of the season. The Marlins have won four consecutive games and four of their last five, sweeping their final two games against Pittsburgh after taking two of three against Los Angeles. Miami's victories during this stretch have included scores of 8-2, 2-0, 12-3 and 7-0. The biggest concern remains the road record, as the Marlins are only 24-35 away from home despite sitting three games above .500 overall.

The Marlins are batting .251 with a .327 on-base percentage and .405 slugging percentage. They have scored 534 runs on 1,007 hits while hitting 123 home runs. Miami's pitching has been another strength, with the staff carrying a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while holding opponents to a .230 batting average.

Miami has the statistical advantage in several important areas. The Marlins have scored 47 more runs than Cincinnati while hitting for a substantially better average. Their pitching staff also owns the superior ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. The recent results back those season numbers, with Miami allowing just nine total runs across its last five games.

Reds Need to Find More Offensive Production

Cincinnati returns home after struggling through its recent road trip. The Reds have dropped four of their last five games, with their only victory coming 5-4 in 10 innings against Chicago. They were shut out 5-0 in their most recent completed game and lost all three games of their previous series against Washington. Cincinnati is 29-31 at Great American Ball Park this season.

The Reds are batting .227 as a team with a .307 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. Cincinnati has scored 487 runs on 899 hits while producing 155 home runs. The pitching staff enters Friday with a 4.48 ERA and 1.40 WHIP while opponents are batting .246.

Power is Cincinnati's clearest offensive advantage, with the Reds hitting 32 more home runs than Miami. The overall production has been much less consistent, however. Cincinnati trails Miami considerably in batting average, on-base percentage, runs and hits, while its pitching numbers are also weaker. That puts additional pressure on the Reds to capitalize on their power opportunities in a matchup where sustained offense could be difficult to generate.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami is the preferred side despite Cincinnati having the stronger starting pitching numbers. The Marlins have won four straight and bring significant advantages in overall offensive production and season-long pitching statistics. Miami has the better batting average, on-base percentage, staff ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average. Cincinnati has lost four of five and has struggled to consistently generate runs. The Marlins' 24-35 road record creates some concern, but their current form and broader statistical profile make Miami the side to back.

Pick: Under 8.0

With no confirmed total available, take the Under if the total is set at 8.0 or higher. The strongest argument is the starting matchup. Both starters enter with ERAs below 3.55 and WHIPs below 1.20, while Cincinnati is batting only .227 this season. Miami's pitching staff has also held opponents to a .230 average, and the Marlins recorded two shutouts during their last four victories. Great American Ball Park can create scoring concerns, but the pitching matchup makes the Under attractive at eight runs or better.