Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Sunday, August 16, 2026

The Miami Marlins visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Sunday, August 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 PM ET, with MLB.TV providing television coverage. Miami enters the matchup at 62-61 overall and 24-36 on the road, while Cincinnati is 59-62 overall and 30-31 at home. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. Before making your selections for Sunday’s matchup, check out our free MLB picks for more baseball predictions and analysis.

Starting Pitchers

Eury Perez is scheduled to start for Miami and enters at 6-9 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 116.2 innings. He has allowed 85 hits and 13 home runs while recording 128 strikeouts against 44 walks. Cincinnati counters with Nick Lodolo, who is 3-2 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.46 WHIP through 66.2 innings. He has surrendered 70 hits and 12 home runs while recording 55 strikeouts against 27 walks. Miami has the clear statistical advantage in the starting matchup, particularly in ERA and WHIP, while its scheduled starter has also worked considerably more innings with strong strikeout production.

Miami Has the Numbers to Bounce Back

Miami enters Sunday at 62-61 overall, but its 24-36 road record has been a weakness this season. The Marlins are 3-2 over their last five completed games despite dropping their last two, including Friday's 1-0 loss at Cincinnati. Before those defeats, Miami posted three straight victories by scores of 8-2, 2-0, and 12-3.

The Marlins are batting .249 with a .324 on-base percentage and .402 slugging percentage. Miami has scored 535 runs on 1,014 hits while hitting 124 home runs. The pitching staff owns a 3.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .231 batting average. Miami has recorded 1,024 strikeouts while issuing 409 walks.

Miami holds several meaningful statistical advantages in this matchup. The Marlins have the better batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, team ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. They have also scored 38 more runs than Cincinnati. The major concern is Miami's poor road record, but the favorable scheduled starting matchup gives the Marlins an opportunity to overcome that weakness.

Cincinnati Looks to Continue Its Recent Run

Cincinnati enters the matchup at 59-62 overall and is nearly even at Great American Ball Park with a 30-31 home record. The Reds have gone 3-2 across their last five completed games and have won two straight, including Friday's 1-0 victory over Miami. Cincinnati also recorded recent victories of 9-8 and 5-4 in 10 innings over Chicago.

The Reds are batting .227 this season with a .307 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage. Cincinnati has scored 497 runs on 913 hits while hitting 158 home runs. Its pitching staff carries a 4.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .246. The Reds have recorded 976 strikeouts while issuing 498 walks.

Cincinnati's clearest advantage is its power. The Reds have hit 158 home runs compared with 124 for Miami, giving them the ability to change a game quickly despite their lower batting average and on-base percentage. The concern is the overall pitching profile. Cincinnati trails Miami considerably in ERA and WHIP, and Sunday's scheduled starter carries a 4.86 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction

Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline

Miami is the preferred side despite its 24-36 road record. The Marlins hold the stronger overall record and have significant season-long advantages in batting average, OBP, runs scored, ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting average. Most importantly, Miami has the better scheduled starting matchup, with its starter carrying a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP compared with Cincinnati's 4.86 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. That pitching advantage makes Miami the choice to respond after Friday's narrow defeat.

Pick: Under 8.5

Take the under if the total is set at 8.5. Miami's scheduled starter owns a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and the Marlins have held opponents to two runs or fewer in three of their last five completed games. Cincinnati has also played two lower-scoring contests during its last five, including Friday's 1-0 result. Great American Ball Park can produce offense, but the supplied pitching and recent scoring numbers make the under the preferred play at 8.5.

Preview was completed prior to game play on Saturday.