Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 31, 2026
The Miami Marlins visit the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Friday, July 31, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on MLB.TV. Miami enters the series opener with a 55-54 overall record and a 21-31 road mark, while New York is 46-63 overall and 24-31 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks before wagering on Friday’s complete schedule.
Starting Pitchers for Marlins vs Mets
Janson Junk is scheduled to start for Miami opposite New York right-hander Freddy Peralta. Junk enters with a 4-6 record, a 4.89 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP through 73.2 innings. He has allowed 80 hits, 20 walks and 11 home runs while recording 57 strikeouts. Peralta carries a 5-9 record with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP across 113.2 innings. He has surrendered 120 hits, 48 walks and 17 home runs while collecting 113 strikeouts. The Miami starter owns the lower ERA and WHIP, while the New York starter has worked 40 more innings and recorded 56 more strikeouts.
Miami Brings a Three-Game Winning Streak to Queens
The Marlins enter Friday’s matchup one game above .500 at 55-54, although they have gone 21-31 away from home. Miami has won three consecutive games, defeating Philadelphia by scores of 8-6, 1-0 and 8-7. The Marlins recently lost their previous two games against San Diego by scores of 5-3 and 7-2. Miami has scored 17 runs during its three-game winning streak after producing five combined runs in the preceding two losses.
Miami is batting .251 with 481 runs, 908 hits and 112 home runs. The Marlins have recorded a .327 on-base percentage and a .407 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.09 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP while issuing 371 walks and recording 910 strikeouts. Opposing batters are hitting .232 against Miami, which has compiled a 25-22 record in day games.
The Marlins hold a broad offensive advantage in this matchup. Miami leads New York in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The Marlins have scored 32 more runs and collected 53 more hits while posting an on-base percentage 22 points higher than that of the Mets. Miami has hit 17 fewer home runs, but its stronger overall production and current three-game winning streak provide reasons to support the visitors.
New York Returns Home With Signs of Improvement
The Mets come into the series opener with a 46-63 overall record and a 24-31 record at Citi Field. New York has won three of its last five games, recently defeating Atlanta 3-2 and 14-3 while also earning an 8-3 victory over Los Angeles. The Mets recently lost 1-0 to Atlanta and 4-3 to Los Angeles. Three of New York’s last five contests were decided by one run.
New York is batting .234 with 449 runs, 855 hits and 129 home runs. The Mets carry a .305 on-base percentage and a .383 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.13 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP while issuing 380 walks and collecting 989 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .237 against New York, which has produced a 22-24 record in day games.
New York’s clearest statistical strengths are its home-run production and pitching strikeout total. The Mets have hit 17 more home runs than Miami and recorded 79 more strikeouts. However, they trail the Marlins in nearly every other supplied team category. New York has the lower batting average, run total, hit total, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Its pitching staff also enters with the slightly higher ERA and WHIP.
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction
Miami holds the better overall record and enters with three consecutive victories, but New York has also won three of its last five games. The Marlins are 55-54 overall but only 21-31 on the road, while the Mets are 46-63 overall and 24-31 at home. Neither location-based record provides a commanding advantage.
The matchup predictor gives New York a 53.8% probability of winning compared with Miami’s 46.2%. The Mets also hold advantages in home runs and pitching strikeouts. However, Miami owns the stronger offensive profile, the better team ERA and WHIP, the lower opponent batting average and slightly better starting pitching numbers.
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Pick
- Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline
Miami is the moneyline selection. The Marlins enter on a three-game winning streak and hold the better overall record by nine games. They also have advantages in batting average, runs, hits, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Miami’s scheduled starter owns the lower ERA and WHIP, while the Marlins’ staff has also posted better figures in both categories. New York’s matchup predictor advantage and Miami’s road record make this a competitive contest, but the supplied team statistics give the visitors the better overall profile.
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Total Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
Take the over if the total is set at 8.5. Miami has scored 17 runs during its three-game winning streak, while New York has produced 29 runs across its last five games. Both scheduled starters enter with ERAs above 4.85, and the two teams have combined to hit 241 home runs. Although each club recently participated in a 1-0 game, the broader scoring results and starting pitching numbers support the over at the target total.
Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins 6 – New York Mets 4
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.