Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Saturday, August 1, 2026

The Miami Marlins visit the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens, New York, on Saturday, August 1, 2026. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET, with coverage available on MLB.TV. The game-time temperature is expected to be 83 degrees. Miami enters at 55-55 overall with a 21-32 road record, while New York is 47-63 overall and 25-31 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Mets a 53.7% chance of winning, compared with 46.3% for the Marlins. New York is a -135 moneyline favorite, while Miami is listed at +110. The Mets are +155 when laying 1.5 runs, with the Marlins priced at -190 at +1.5. The total is nine runs, with both the over and under listed at -110. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks⁠.

Starting Pitchers for Miami and New York

Tyler Phillips is the probable starter for Miami and enters with a 2-5 record, 3.52 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP. The right-hander has completed 84.1 innings, allowing 77 hits, 38 walks, and 10 home runs while recording 63 strikeouts. New York will counter with Zac Thornton, who owns a 2-1 record with a 2.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The left-hander has worked 29.2 innings, surrendering 20 hits, seven walks, and two home runs while collecting 22 strikeouts. Thornton has handled a much smaller workload, but he holds clear advantages in record, ERA, WHIP, walks, and home runs allowed. 

Miami Tries to Regain Its Winning Touch on the Road

The Marlins enter Saturday’s matchup at 55-55 overall after losing 4-2 to the Mets in their most recently completed game. That result ended a three-game winning streak in which Miami swept Philadelphia by scores of 8-7, 1-0, and 8-6. The Marlins began their five-game stretch with a 5-3 home loss to San Diego, leaving them with three victories across their last five contests.

Miami is batting .251 with 483 runs, 915 hits, and 114 home runs. The Marlins have produced a .326 on-base percentage and a .407 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 4.08 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .231 batting average. Miami has issued 373 walks and recorded 918 strikeouts. The Marlins are 25-22 in day games.

The Marlins hold the more productive offensive profile entering this matchup. Miami leads New York by 18 points in batting average, 30 runs, 54 hits, and 21 points in on-base percentage. The Marlins also own a 25-point advantage in slugging percentage. They have scored at least six runs in three of their last five games, but their offense was limited to two runs in the series opener. Miami must rediscover its recent scoring form against a starter carrying a 2.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.

New York Builds Momentum Behind Improved Pitching

The Mets enter Saturday at 47-63 overall, but their recent results have been much better than their season record. New York has won four of its last five completed games. The Mets defeated Miami 4-2 in the series opener after splitting a doubleheader against Atlanta, losing 1-0 and winning 3-2. New York also recorded convincing victories over Atlanta and Los Angeles by scores of 14-3 and 8-3.

New York is batting .233 with 453 runs, 861 hits, and 129 home runs. The Mets have registered a .305 on-base percentage and a .382 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries a 4.11 ERA and 1.29 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .237. New York has issued 383 walks and recorded 998 strikeouts. The Mets are 22-24 in day games.

The Mets’ most important advantage comes from their starting pitcher and recent run prevention. New York has allowed three runs or fewer in each of its last five games, surrendering only 11 runs during that stretch. Thornton has permitted just 20 hits, seven walks, and two home runs across 29.2 innings. Miami holds modest advantages in the season-long team pitching numbers, but New York has recorded 80 more strikeouts and carries the better immediate form into Saturday’s contest.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Pick

• Pick: New York Mets Moneyline (-135)

I am backing New York because the Mets have won four of their last five games and possess the stronger starting-pitching numbers. Thornton enters with a 2.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, compared with Phillips’ 3.52 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Miami owns the superior offensive statistics and the better overall record, but New York has held five consecutive opponents to three runs or fewer. The Mets also won the opening game of this series and have the support of ESPN Analytics’ 53.7% projection. At -135, the moneyline is preferable to asking New York to cover 1.5 runs.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Total Pick

• Pick: Under 9 (-110)

I would play the under at nine because the probable starters enter with ERAs of 3.52 and 2.43, while New York’s recent games have been controlled by pitching. Four of the Mets’ last five contests finished with seven combined runs or fewer. Miami has displayed more offensive volatility, but two of its last four games also stayed below the current total. Thornton’s 0.91 WHIP and New York’s run-prevention form provide the strongest support for a game that finishes below nine runs.

Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 5 – Miami Marlins 3

This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.