Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 30, 2026

The Miami Marlins visit the New York Mets on Thursday at 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Miami is 54-54 and sits fourth in the NL East, nine games behind the Atlanta Braves. The Marlins have won two straight games after sweeping the final two contests of their series against Philadelphia. New York is 45-62 and sits fifth in the NL East, 17.5 games out of first place. The Mets have also won two consecutive games after taking the final two matchups against Atlanta and Los Angeles. Be a winner with our free MLB picks.

Miami Marlins Looking for a Third Straight Victory

The Marlins have quietly put together one of the better offensive seasons in the National League, batting .251 while scoring 473 runs with 900 hits, 110 home runs, a .326 on-base percentage, and a .406 slugging percentage. Otto Lopez has led the offense with a .328 batting average and 136 hits, while Liam Hicks has driven in 60 runs and added 14 home runs. Heriberto Hernandez leads the club with 15 home runs, Xavier Edwards is hitting .291 with 17 stolen bases, and Kyle Stowers has contributed 14 home runs. 

Miami has also received dependable pitching throughout the season. The Marlins own a 4.11 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .232 batting average. The staff has recorded 896 strikeouts and ranks among the better pitching groups in baseball in opponent batting average. That combination has helped Miami win back-to-back games while allowing only seven total runs over its last three contests.

Injuries: Michael Petersen (Day-to-Day), William Kempner (15-Day IL), Owen Caissie (10-Day IL), Josh Ekness (60-Day IL), Anthony Bender (15-Day IL).

New York Mets Trying to Build on Back-to-Back Wins

The Mets have struggled offensively for much of the season, batting .235 while scoring 446 runs with 847 hits, 129 home runs, a .307 on-base percentage, and a .387 slugging percentage. Juan Soto has been the biggest threat with a .283 batting average, 21 home runs, and a .408 on-base percentage. Bo Bichette has collected 110 hits and driven in 53 runs, while Carson Benge has added 11 home runs. Francisco Alvarez has contributed 12 home runs, and Marcus Semien has chipped in 12 long balls. New York's lineup has shown more life during its current two-game winning streak.

The Mets have relied on their pitching staff to stay competitive, posting a 4.18 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP while holding opponents to a .238 batting average. The staff has piled up 971 strikeouts, one of the highest totals in baseball, and has consistently generated swings and misses. That ability to miss bats has given New York a chance to compete even when the offense has been inconsistent.

Injuries: Dedniel Nunez (60-Day IL), Clay Holmes (60-Day IL), Justin Hagenman (60-Day IL), Juan Soto (10-Day IL), Mark Vientos (10-Day IL).

Pitching Matchup

Miami Marlins – Eury Perez

Perez is 5-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 98.2 innings. He has allowed only 72 hits while striking out 106 batters and walking 38. Perez has consistently limited hard contact and has the swing-and-miss ability to keep opposing lineups under control.

New York Mets – Nolan McLean

McLean enters with a 7-7 record, a 3.32 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP across 119.1 innings. He has allowed 90 hits while striking out 142 batters and giving up only 11 home runs. McLean has been one of New York's most reliable starters and gives the Mets a strong chance every time he takes the mound.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Game Pick

• Miami Marlins

Miami enters this matchup with the more consistent lineup and the better overall pitching staff. The Marlins own a higher team batting average, have scored more runs than New York, and continue to receive excellent production from Otto Lopez and Liam Hicks. Eury Perez has posted a strong 3.56 ERA and has limited opponents to just 72 hits in nearly 99 innings. Miami has also won its last two games and appears to be carrying more confidence into the start of this series, making the Marlins the play.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Over/Under Pick

• Under

This matchup features two starting pitchers with identical 1.11 WHIPs and ERAs below 3.60. Eury Perez has struck out 106 batters in 98.2 innings, while Nolan McLean has recorded 142 strikeouts across 119.1 innings. Miami ranks among the better teams in opponent batting average, and New York's pitching staff has generated one of the highest strikeout totals in baseball. With both starters capable of working deep into the game, expect scoring to remain limited throughout the evening, with the under cashing.