Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, September 24, 2025
In our Marlins vs. Phillies prediction, the Miami Marlins are third in the NL East with a 76-80 record so far. They are having young left-hander Ryan Weathers get the start as he is coming off a no-decision against the Colorado Rockies, where he pitched 4.0 innings and allowed three runs on eight hits with a pair of walks and two strikeouts.
The Philadelphia Phillies are playing well as they are sitting in first place in the NL East with a 92-64 record entering this game. Southpaw Jesus Luzardo takes the ball and lost last time out against the Los Angeles Dodger,s where he gave up four runs on six hits with one walk and six strikeouts in seven innings.
Today’s edge: MLB predictions for Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies built on form and matchups.
WRITTEN BEFORE TUESDAY’S GAME
Marlins Looking to Finish the Season Strong
The Miami Marlins have been a decent offensive team as they are 16th in the majors with a .712 team OPS while averaging 4.43 runs per game. Miami has been aggressive on the bases as they are ninth with 131 stolen bases while being caught 41 times. Catcher Agustin Ramirez has been hitting at an okay level as he has a .713 OPS with 21 home runs, 67 RBI, 71 runs scored, and 14 steals while being caught three times.
Ryan Weathers has not pitched enough to factor into the percentile rankings on Baseball Savant as he has an 89.2 MPH average exit velocity, 23.2 chase percentage, 40.8 chase percentage, and 7.0 walk percentage. He has a five-pitch arsenal (fastball, changeup, sweeper, slider, sinker) and his sweeper has been his best pitch as hitters have a .176 batting average and .235 slugging percentage with zero home runs and five strikeouts against it. Weathers has not faced the Phillies since 2023 as a member of the San Diego Padres, where he lost by going 4.2 innings and allowed four runs on six hits with two walks and two strikeouts.
Injury Report for Miami
- Pitcher Tyler Zuber: Lat (OUT)
- Pitcher Anthony Bender: Tibia (OUT)
- Pitcher Ryan Gusto: Shoulder (OUT)
- Left fielder Kyle Stowers: Oblique (OUT)
- Pitcher Jesus Tinoco: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Max Meyer: Hip (OUT)
- Pitcher Andrew Nardi: Back (OUT)
- Pitcher Braxton Garrett: Elbow (OUT)
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Phillies Looking to Lock Into Top 2 Seed
The Philadelphia Phillies are doing an amazing job at the plate as they are third in the bigs with a .762 team OPS while scoring 4.83 runs per game. The team has been hitting for power as their 202 total home runs is ninth in MLB. Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber has been swinging the bat incredibly well as he is posting a .241/.366/.562 slash line with 54 home runs, 130 RBI, 108 runs scored, and 10 steals while being caught twice.
Jesus Luzardo is pitching extremely well this season when diving into his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 84th percentile in whiff percentage, 84th percentile in strikeout percentage, 78th percentile in chase percentage, and 75th percentile in barrel percentage. He has five different pitches (fastball, sweeper, changeup, sinker, slider) and his sweeper has been his best pitch as hitters have a .179 batting average and .267 slugging percentage with three home runs and 93 strikeouts. Luzardo has faced the Marlins three times this season already and is 1-1 in 18.0 innings and gave up eight runs (seven earned) on 19 hits with eight walks and 19 strikeouts.
Injury Report for Philadelphia
- Second baseman Edmundo Sosa: Groin (OUT)
- Pitcher Jose Alvarado: Forearm (OUT)
- Shortstop Trea Turner: Hamstring (OUT)
- Pitcher Daniel Robert: Forearm (OUT)
- Pitcher Zack Wheeler: Blood Clot (OUT)
- Pitcher Jordan Romano: Finger (OUT)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
Spread Pick for Marlins vs. Phillies
- Philadelphia Phillies ML (5 units)
Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Weathers have been pitching at a similar level this season, so let’s take a look at some other factors. There is a gap with how these teams are hitting against southpaw pitching, as the Marlins are 22nd in the bigs with a .666 team OPS, while the Phillies are eighth in baseball with a .743 team OPS against left-handed pitching. Hitting with runners in scoring position has shown the ability for these teams to produce, but there is a difference. Miami is seventh with a .781 team OPS with runners in scoring position, while Philadelphia is fourth with a .786 team OPS in those chances. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five games against the Marlins so take the Philadelphia Phillies to record another home win here.
Over/Under Pick for Marlins vs. Phillies
- UNDER (4 units)
In the previous seven starts, these pitchers are doing well at limiting runs as Ryan Weathers is 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 33.2 innings, while Jesus Luzardo is 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 43.2 innings during that stretch. Over the course of the season, these teams have done a good job in terms of limiting home runs allowed, as Miami ranks 19th in MLB with 189 home runs hit against them, while Philadelphia is tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres for 11th with 173. All in all, take the UNDER as the better bet for this game.
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