Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions, Thursday September 25, 2025
The 2025 MLB season has just a few days remaining, and to close out the season, we'll see an intriguing division showdown with our Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.
The Miami Marlins (77-81) failed to put together long stretches of success in 2025, but with the team set to finish the year close to .500, it bodes well for this young team taking a step forward in the years to come.
On Thursday they take on the Philadelphia Phillies (93-65), a team that have wrapped up their spot in the playoffs, and with the post-season now approaching, they'll look to find their groove ahead of some tough matchups. Read on to see our Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.
Expected pitching matchup: RHP Janson Junk vs. RHP Walker Buehler.
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Can the Marlins end a solid year on a high?
The Miami Marlins came into the season highly overlooked in the NL East, and while they'll end up finishing in third place, that's a huge step forward for a young team that has gone 41-39 away from home thus far in 2025. Unlike previous Marlins teams, this one thrives offensively, as they rank 15th in all of baseball in runs scored, but with a team ERA of 4.62 ranking them 25th in the big leagues, they'll need to improve in a big way this winter to come back stronger next year.
Taking the mound for Miami here is talented right-hander Janson Junk, who has compiled a solid 4.27 ERA over 20 appearances this season, with the 29-year old showing some consistency, tallying just 13 walks across 105.1 innings of work. Last time out for the Marlins was a tough loss to these Phillies, with the lone RBI coming to Eric Wagaman on the night as Ryan Weathers gave up five earned across 4.2 innings of work, as the team would eventually fall 11-1.
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Is this Phillies team for real in 2025?
The Philadelphia Phillies are as loaded as any team in all of baseball. After cruising to another National League East crown during a red-hot second-half, this is team that believes they can be genuine World Series contenders in 2025. The big strength of this team is their balance, as they rank top-10 in baseball in both runs scored and team ERA, and with a 52-25 record at home this season, they've proven tough to beat all year long.
Here, the Phillies turn to veteran Walker Buehler, who has made just two appearances since arriving in Philadelphia, posting a 1.04 ERA in that time, giving up just one earned run across 8.1 innings of work through one start and one relief outing. Last time out for Philadelphia was another dominant victory, with Jesus Luzardo tossing 7.0 innings of one-run ball to lead the way as the offense exploded behind five RBI from Edmundo Sosa as they came away winners 11-1.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies pick
Money line pick for Marlins vs. Phillies
- Philadelphia -165 (5 units)
Game two of this series was a dominant performance from Philadelphia, taking their record to 6-4 against the Marlins in their last 10 head-to-head matchups, with the Phillies winning five of their last seven.
On top of that, the Phillies turn to Walker Buehler in this one on the back of an incredible first start with the team, and given the momentum behind them heading into the post-season, expect another big outing from the Phillies here.
Over/under pick for Marlins vs. Phillies
- Over 9 (5 units)
While both squads have solid pitchers on the mound, this matchup is all about offense, with the over being 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head encounters, resulting in 35 total runs scored in their last three meetings in Philadelphia.
For the Marlins, the over sits at 7-3 in their last 10 overall games, with just under five runs allowed per game in that stretch, and for the Phillies, the over comes in at 8-2 in their past 10, with double digit total runs scored in their last four games played at home.
Keep it simple, take the over.
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