Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks - Tuesday, September 23, 2025
The Philadelphia Phillies will open their home series against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park, and we have you ready to go with the Marlins vs the Phillies prediction.
Opening Pitch is slated for 6:45 PM Eastern as the Marlins look to make their case for a postseason appearance. Read on for the Marlins vs Phillies prediction and more free MLB picks.
Marlins Win 6th Straight
Miami continues to play well, this time topping the Rangers in a 4-2 final. Miami finished with 11 hits as two players finished with multiple hits at the plate. Otto Lopez led the way with three hits. Miami struck out nine times in the contest. Eury Perez got the start, and over four innings, he struck out nine and allowed two hits and no runs.
RHP Edward Cabrera is slated to start the upcoming game for the Marlins. This will be Cabrera's first start since coming off the 15-day IL. This season, Quantrill has made 24 starts, posting a 7-7 record with a 3.57 ERA over 128.2 innings pitched. He has recorded 140 strikeouts against 42 walks while holding opponents to a .234 batting average overall. Cabrera has been weaker on the road this season, where he holds his only losing record. On the plus side, he's struck out six or more in four of his last five starts.
On the road in 2025:
- ERA: 4.47
- Opponent Batting Average (OBA): .259
- BB/K Ratio: 0.34
Miami enters this contest averaging 4.36 runs per game, which lands them at 15th in the league. The Marlins have climbed to right around the top 10 in overall batting average, but they've been hitting weaker both on the road and in night games this season. What's more, the Marlins are sitting in the bottom five in both walks received and strikeouts per game. This comes with a bottom-10 home run rate. Given the inconsistencies at the plate this season for Miami, they'll need to take advantage when runners are in scoring position here.
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Phillies Drop 3 Of 4
Philadelphia continues to struggle driving runs home. They scored just two runs on 11 hits in their last contest, striking out eight times. Alec Bohm was the lone Phillie with multiple hits as he finished with four. Ranger Suarez got the start, and over four innings, he struck out two and allowed six runs.
LHP Cristopher Sánchez is expected to start for the Philadelphia Phillies. This season, Sánchez has made 30 starts, holding a 13-5 record with a 2.66 ERA across 189.3 innings pitched. He has recorded 198 strikeouts while issuing 43 walks, holding opposing hitters to a .235 batting average. Sánchez has continued to build on his 2024 breakout and has allowed just two home runs over his last 10 starts.
At home this season, Sánchez holds the following splits:
- ERA: 2.22
- Opponent Batting Average (OBA): .210
- BB/K Ratio: 0.16
Philadelphia enters this contest averaging 4.82 runs per game, which landed them at 10th in the league. The Phillies have been strong at the plate and are sitting in the top 10 in terms of overall league batting average. This average dropped slightly when the Phillies are hitting at home, but more than half of their home runs are coming in front of their home crowd. What's more, the Phillies hit their strongest under the lights this season, and walks continue to come in at a very high rate. Philadelphia was great when it came to launching the long ball last season, and they'll need more home run production from their lineup this season.
Marlins vs. Phillies Pick
Side Prediction for Marlins vs Phillies
- Phillies -1.5
The Phillies have seen the ball well in September, and Sanchez has been throwing some of his best of late, with just two home runs over his last 10 contests. With Sanchez finding ways to retire batters at home and the inconsistency on the Marlins' mound and in the batter's box, look for the Phillies to pull away early here.
Philadelphia -1.5
Total Prediction for Marlins vs Phillies
- Over 7.5
Both teams come into this matchup with offenses trending upward. The Phillies have been one of the top-scoring teams at home this season, while the Marlins have quietly climbed into the top half of the league in runs per game over the last two weeks. Cabrera has struggled with limiting damage on the road, and Philadelphia’s bullpen has shown vulnerability in recent outings. On the other side, Sanchez's strikeout stuff is strong, but his command issues can lead to quick rallies. With two hot offenses and shaky middle relief units, expect plenty of scoring opportunities across nine innings.
Over 7.5
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